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Sun November 27th, 2022
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Sun November 27th, 2022
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When #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY debuted back on October 22nd, they were giving up recency and experience to others in the field. That changes coming back for this second start, upgraded on OptixPLOT and overall upside returning under similar conditions for Block.
#7 AQUACAT was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race back on October 29th with the races taken off the turf. That race is noted as the class was a step up and to also note the time between starts that otherwise would be a strong negative, though can be excused in this case.
#1 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR shows up in this spot following a vet scratch on November 18th at a $7500 maiden claiming level. As far as the debut back in August at FanDuel, he broke slow (SLOG) and checked (TROUBLE_S) soon after while his stablemate went on to win as the favorite.
#5 KIANA’S LOVE returns from the October 28th race and under similar conditions for her second start of the meet. The race shape and her early, tactical speed presents an edge in today’s dynamic as a Quad I Square above the Par Line.
#7 GHAALEB’S MAGIC should be stalking her from the outside draw and as shown as a tracking Quad I Square with #1 TIME BREAK looking at a similar trip from the rail. #3 SUMMER LOVIN has shown some progression this season and should turn in another honest effort running on late as a Quad IV Square.
Tough to see why #8 PRADA’S MIRACLE would be shorter than the two fillies she finished behind in the October 30th common race and offers no value as the second (or shorter) choice. If willing to “give a pass” from a rough (TROUBLE_S) and open length winner in the fourth place result and even a WIDE trip on October 9th with the outside draw; overall she has not shown much progression race-to-race (the same concern for statebred #4 MISS KITTY PIE returning in open company) and some class concerns for Prada’s Miracle (DROP) off the visuals as well. The lack of value also for #6 TANGO CITY one that has had many chances at this level and what you see is what you get from her. Her form coming back in 2022 lacks an edge over many in this field to justify a shorter price.
#1 PERFECTLY PROUD ran a “winning” effort with her place finish from the Turf Paradise debut back in January. Her return from the 258-day layoff here on October 9th was a sneaky good effort (B- OptixGRADE) all things considered and with adversity from start to finish. Some regression could have set in wheeling back off that effort in just three weeks and the TRAFFIC trip did her no favors. Her stablemate, #7 MIZZEN MILLIONS was favored on debut and has been freshened for this return and second start. The September 3rd race has not been a productive event, though the winner, Ms Coronado Chrome return here on October 1st in an allowance race (finished 9th) recording an 81 OptixFIG, a jump from the 70 OptixFIG with the win.
#5 CRYSTAL SNOW will make the transition to the turf and added ground. She has shown progression race-to-race and if there is another move forward this would be the time. The October 23rd race was not an “excuse” in running, though she was very fractious in the GATE and something that does not show up on the running line or chart.
#3 COWGIRL FRANKIE will be class tested again taking on open company though off her TURF physicality she should take to the grass in just her second start over the turf.
#2 FREE LOVE showed run on debut and projected to IMPROVE off the race and did just that here on June 3rd. Both races had slow (SLOG) starts and from the visuals should show early speed on the stretch out, off the layoff and with Santiago aboard. #9 BEE A WINNER also projects to show early speed (Plot) and improved on the turf last month number wise with a WIDE trip. The intention for the turf was in play for her going back to 2021 when entered three times for the turf at the Fair Grounds when in the care of Mike Maker.
The Plot position for #5 RAVE ON suggests a potential pace advantage in this race. They return this after with a rider change and as a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) from the October 29th to improve off of. #6 LOOK AWAY has some buried form and finds significant class relief from his races here this season run for a higher purse and higher OFR/race par.
#3 SCAT SHACK and #4 FLASHY RICHIE have held their form this season and with clean form (lacking Red in the Past 3 Runlines) lack knocks on that front though must improve and require a trip for the win.
#3 TAPIT SAM is upgraded today returning from a BTL effort with the fifth place finish under similar conditions two weeks ago. #1 DYNAMOMETER also wheels right back for this race and from the November 13th common race. They will move from one post extreme to another drawn the far outside in the three most recent starts and that change alone could assist and avoid another WIDE trip. They also have been able to show legit early sprint speed at times and would not be any shock for Felix to use that tactic here.
#6 FRISCO LINE shows a similar Plot position, though a shorter number on the morning line is tougher to justify in this case.
#7 KANITHAPPEN could get the trip as shown on Surface/Distance as a Quad III Square with the “Snowflake” Contention. This jockey/trainer combination has had success with these type of front runners, though Kanithappen has not been a typical front running sprinter. They will be forced to use with #5 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE in the race and especially if #2 NACHO S (and even Dynamometer) returns from the layoff and brings the early speed they showed with their maiden win back in July.
The race dynamic is tricky (Yellow PlotFit) showing the Contention as five of the eight land “bunched” up on the Plot. #1 ALMAFUERTE appears to hold the edge of that flight and in terms of OptixFIG in OFR. #5 MINI DRESS returns from a 28-day freshening and some buried form this season that could have her back to top form and upgraded from the Plot, a position taking into account the X_FLOW race back on October 16th and the WIDE trip quick turnaround two weeks later.
The Contention could also set up a trip for #8 CAIRO SUMMER one that might not have handled the winter WEATHER and wheeling back from that cold night of racing just 9-days ago.
#6 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN is tougher to make a case for looking at the Plot, though can be taken with a grain of salt with Yellow PlotFit. She will cut back to a sprint, a distance that was her standard before the two route races this season. Her effort a this level back on October 21st stacks up with hidden form/class recording the B- OptixGRADE. The intention going into that race might have been to cutback to a sprint in the next start though after the place finish, it also made sense for Childers to given her another chance around two turns on November 6th.
Longshot #11 LUCKY SHOT is worth keeping on the radar as they are not without an upset chance here. The Contention is a “Fire” rating, though paired with a lower SpeedRate that could still present a favorable scenario to a front runner. His Plot position is not the strongest here, though one has to consider he is a lightly raced three-year-old that could still hold upside. His OptixFIG from the return on October 30th is promising to suggest improvement especially as he recorded an 86 OptixFIG over this course as a juvenile with the win last December.
Becker will return with a pair in this race including the morning line favorite, #4 WALKER’S WIN. This could be a “wedding/funeral” situation with Walker’s Win coming back off the 11-1 upset win just two weeks ago. He popped with a career top 92 OptixFIG in that first start back in 138-days and could see regression here. #9 W W CRAZY will make his return to Hawthorne and fits on par based on his races here from earlier this season. He also has established form and returning from a higher level claiming race ($68k purse) on November 2nd at Churchill Downs, a race that has held form with the limited starters that have run back since.
#5 HUEY ATTACK and #7 BRING ME A CHECK should fall into a favorable trip with today’s race shape and first run on #1 TETSU, #6 DIAMOND MAXIMUS and #8 W W CANDY with class as a massive test and would require a top effort today.
Boyce will bring back #10 JEFF THE LION in this spot after the long layoff something of a tougher test for older horses and has had some setbacks trying to return earlier this year and noting a vet scratch here last October. #2 TIGHTROPE also returns here off the 232-day layoff and in this spot as they were a vet scratch from a $20k claiming race on November 6th.
#4 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT fit back on November 11th and turned in a solid B- OptixGRADE effort for the level and in her first start back off the 70-day layoff. She fits off that effort and in today’s dynamic as a Quad I Square.
Looking at OptixPLOT, there is separation between Keepmeinthe Moment and Quad I to the next flight and cluster of Squares with #1 IGGY BIGS, #5 MARYS LAST SONG and #9 MAUREENLOVESFRANK runners with form this season though still require more for this allowance level. #7 CHROME ATTACK is upgraded on Standard and does have a B OptixGRADE at this allowance condition over the turf back in June that fits here if able to transfer to the main track.
The B- OptixGRADE for #3 JUDY’S MS. OFFICER on October 28th should not be ignored here, though noting she is cross entered in a TURF race earlier this weekend.
Sun November 27th, 2022
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On or off turf, the likely favorite looks to be the one to take this race. Things have turned around in his last couple of starts as he is also likely to show early speed. Expect him to be a heavy favorite in here today.
This is a weird race as it seems to be musical jockeys all over the place. Time Break is the one who keeps her same rider as she ran on late after a wide trip. The pace looks to be contested early in here so a stalking trip should be the winning trip.
If this race comes off the grass you have to think D'oro Forever is well intended in here. Despite a few poor recent races, she was entered main track only and if the connections choose to ship over they are doing so with the intention of winning. There is some pace in here as this one should be able to rate and run on late.
Scat Shack ran on pretty well in his last as he was in a good stalking spot and battled on when the pace gave way ahead of him. A switch in the saddle to Tavares for a barn that has had success in a handful of starts this meet.
A tough condition as so many of these have had so many chances to grab their second career win and haven't been able to do so. I liked Kanithappen last out and he raced well with the turn back in distance. Baird back in the saddle as a stalking trip could be a winning trip.
First Kitten will be a likely heavy favorite but Almafuerte gets a rider change and loves this Hawthorne track. The only times in her career that she hasn't found the board at Hawthorne are her last two races where she ran 4th in each. The pace should be honest here and if the track comes up wet she moves way up.
Walker's Win stepped up and ran a huge race last time out. What was most impressive was that he rated back a bit early on and then took over into the lane. There is some other pace in here and the tracking trip could be the route to go.
Keepmeinthe Moment came from California to Hawthorne prior to her last out and ran a solid race. She showed speed, finishing second to Long Tall Woman, a horse who came right back and won this past Friday.