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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed September 27th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 RUN SMITTY RUN makes a lot of sense in this spot and no surprise coming into this race for Diodoro. #3 VALE with another letter is value in this race reclaimed by Forster and back at the level where they earned a B OptixGRADE with the place finish here at CD on May 21st. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Foley has sent out some live runners this meet and that trend could be a positive for #1 MARKSWOMAN returning from another layoff. She moved up on the much needed drop with a competitive race in March at FG - an effort that makes her competitive here. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a highly competitive starter allowance with a case to be made for many in this field and that could see #7 NEPAL UP get lost on the board. He returns off a slight freshening for this second of the cycle and returning to the main track and CD main track where he has run competitively in the past. His form coming into this race from his efforts this season can be upgraded given the timing and trips such as the CNL race last month X_FLOW. 

#5 MINE OWN STAR might ultimately need the claiming company but he is one to keep on the radar and should run an improved race today wheeling right back from the 9/14 race WIDE against the track profile. 

Horseshoe Indy Race 5

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 LITTLE HOT MESS has been looking to return to the turf for the connections and has that opportunity here. She was entered to return to the turf twice before the 9/14 start as the connections likely needing to get her a race given the time off. She should improve with that race under her belt and back to the preferred surface. Her lone turf start was a sneaky good race in April at KEE, a race that stacks up number wise with many in this field including ML favorite, #6 OCEAN SPIRIT. 

#10 NGALA will make a turf debut and given she is an AR-bred and no turf racing at OP it makes sense to try here on the grass here. As far as number her dirt races from earlier this year stack on par and even racing fresh keying off a BTL debut in March. 

#12 CAVU also was intended for turf when she debuted last December at GP. That race quality was just okay and tough to hold that one start against her given the surface switch, debuting around two turns and also the long layoff that followed. 

Horseshoe Indy Race 7

Post Time 4:36 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 LIEUTENANT KITTY has only had just limited opportunities on the grass though visually looks every part of a TURF horse. Her turf debut was back in 2021 when compromised by the extreme (SPACED) race shape and showed run making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW. She made her belated return to the turf in her local debut here on 7/21 and again was compromised by SAVED TRAFFIC and X_FLOW given the trip behind a Slow early and Very Slow late race shape. 

Horseshoe Indy Race 8

Post Time 5:07 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

For a full field, there is not a lot of legit front running 5f turf sprint speed. Sophomore #10 ZOOM ERIN could fill that void as she has shown legit early speed and with buried form. She does require a top effort and value as she must improve and come with a new best with the older established runners she is up against today.