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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Tue February 13th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 NORTHERN REFLECTION will STRETCH back out in distance and for the first time for these connections. He started off his career at the route of ground though found recent success sprinting. Part of that success and perhaps the biggest was the class drop. The class drop today is more subtle, though finds a softer par from the two recent starts and has held his form lacking "red" in the current season.

The distance has been a struggle for #6 J B GRAY in limited tries, though he has some sneaky form coming into this race projecting to IMPROVE off the 12/21 effort and put in a sneaky CLOSE last out.

Fair Grounds Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

If this race stays on the TURF, #9 TEMPLE OF PEACE is upgraded. He presented for the surface physically on debut and improved his figure in the 12/30 event (one next out MSW winner) and suggested intent with the surface switch for the second start. That carried into the 1/27 race with the placement though stayed in despite the shift to the main track. That day TEMPLE broke SLOG had TROUBLE_S and against the dynamic with a pacesetting winner and minimal change in running order. 

Fair Grounds Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 MISCHIEF'S MACHINE comes into this race on the upswing of an every-other pattern. He returns from the 1/25 race with WEATHER impacted poor track conditions that favored runners inside and forwardly placed - a trip he did not have in TRAFFIC from off the pace. 

Fair Grounds Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 CHARLIE G has been waiting and waiting and...waiting for a return to the turf (3 scratches and one AE) since the EX - EXCUSE back in November unable to overcome the outside post to work a trip.

#5 CRIMINAL DEFENSE physically appears a turf horse and has the limited sneaky good races on the grass to support the surface switch. He has upside off his races this season as it is and should be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions. 

Fair Grounds Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 DONCHO is the real deal. He showed talent in the morning leading up to the debut and just like practice, he showed his class. He took some recovery time before getting back to work though looks right back to himself after the race training up to this start. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 PRETTY ANA had a less than ideal trip in a tougher spot breaking from the rail (SLOG) on debut going the two turn distance. She also had to deal with the WEATHER raining during the race and in stuck in TRAFFIC over a course that played favorable to horses forwardly placed. 

#9 MONCLAIR ROAD has shown progression race to race and has the local foundation and fitness returning from a TACTIC- WIDE trip in a productive 12/31 maiden event.