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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed November 22nd, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 COLLECT A LIL could be well-intended for this spot coming off the layoff and training locally in KY. They have upside off their debut and must improve especially with others in this field that have form that is already established as what it takes to be a contender. #1 VALIANT PRAISE being the most obvious though has a pattern of gate issues that must be considered on trip. #6 LIL TOWN SIS is who she is and has her own issues given the excessive layoff lines and still a maiden as the older 5yo mare in the field. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Does not appear much value in this race; #5 AIR COMBAT comes off a layoff though has some of the strongest numbers in the field and connections that can drop and win. The claim is something they are likely looking for as they run for the $30k tag today and noted as they were entered in a similar conditioned claiming event earlier this month for $50k. #6 TAKE THE CHARGE has the edge on recency and in current form as they make their third start off the layoff and the cutback to one-turn could be a positive as well. If there is some value it could come from #4 CATAPARI as his race from back in May...2021. This will be his second start off that extended long layoff and going back to the 10/19 KEE race, he was fractious in the GATE and off SLOG as a result. 

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 1:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The pace should be honest with #1 AWAY FROM HOME along the inside and exiting the race last month with a Fast early and late race shape and with #10 CAFE RACER one that has some natural early speed and might be required to use from the outside. That scenario assists #7 VIGANO (sitting in a similar/preferred Plot position to #2 ACTIVE DUTY and should be higher of the pair) one that should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff with progressive form and back to a route distance. #9 DR. KRINGLE holds buried form with some of the faster recorded numbers in the field that make him a player here and a subtle excuse on 10/6. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 ELEGANT TRIP has legit form to key off going back to a solid, yet GREEN debut where he projected to IMPROVE and held his form next out at KYD. He has upside from the 9/30 event given the trip and TACTIC- on the day - Garcia must improve on the handling back aboard. #5 MOHEGAN has been looking to debut around two-turns on the turf and makes his belated debut here. There is some intent noting the off-the-turf scratch way back in December of 2022 and unable to draw in off the AE last month at KEE. It is interesting that Saez had been named in both events and he lands on #8 ARCHIE THE GIZA one that given the current turf climate might be a "hidden" MTO and intent all around with that projection. The shift to TURF has been the projection for #4 FUNSTRUCK though will have a significant class test here as he makes the circuit switch. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 2:01 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 UPSTRIKER is back at the right level for his abilities and where he has been competitive in the past. This will be the second start off the claim and seems some intent back in this spot racing slightly "protected" last month. Asmussen will return with a pair and keeping it in the family with the riders assigned. #3 RISK PROFILE could present intent as he will race first time for a tag since being claimed and if there is a time and place for him to return to a top effort this would be it. #7 STEINBECK could also hold some positive intent reclaimed three weeks ago and has back numbers and class that make him a contender. 

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:31 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Longshot #1 SHE'S A SAINT is all ROUTER and as she shows up here with a progressive pattern should take to the distance and another move forward is not out of the question. #4 SHOW ME THE CANDY will make her first start for the claiming tag and while she has not had the "trouble" excuses, the two races shapes she exits has no change in running order and that played against her trip wise. #7 MONEY WORKS did have the TROUBLE in her debut last month and with a cleaner break (SLOG) could present more early speed. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 3:01 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 CHANCE did not have much "chance" on 10/12 after the SLOG and in a race shape that had minimal change in running order from start to finish. That event has been productive with three next out winners, including the 10/12 race winner, Forrest City finishing second here on 11/10 in a starter allowance. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:33 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There are a couple horses in here making subtle changes in class assessing prior race par/OFR under similar conditions: #3 AUNT BECCA coming out of the 10/12 allowance and that race also her first start back after 123-days off projects to move forward. #9 JOKE SISI gives up some recency though ran a competitive race under similar conditions back in September at CNL off a similar break with the WIDE trip and number that stacks up with today's OFR. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 4:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There could be some intent for #2 MOHAWK RIVER wheeling right back for this second start. Going back to their 10/29 debut, they lost their footing coming out of the gate, rushed up inside to chase behind duel and eventual pacesetting winner. Their debut number is as strong as any and can present more upside than common rival, #14 RUN JALEN RUN. As far as the first time starters, #9 MACKVILLE comes into this race with a steady, consistent worktab, including a solid gate work and paired with a top rider in R. Bejarano.