Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-SPICY ITALIAN showed little in her first two career starts in Kentucky but shipped here for last and stretched out. She led virtually every step of the way except for her last when she was passed and had to settle for second place, only a nose back. Two Churchill works since should have her back on her toes. Might not look back. 3-PACIFIC VIEW also comes off a narrow loss, though her last race was on grass. That was her fourth second-place finish in her last five starts. The other place finishes were on dirt. She could be tough. 5-LIL CARRIE D showed little on turf in last but did finish third in her previous two main-track route races. The switch back to dirt should help. Could get close.

Tough race to figure out. Few have run competitive races. Most are racing on the lawn for the first time. Could have picked a few different runners but going to go with 4-EL MUCHO. He might be the best of the speed but it’s his turf pedigree that impresses.  He raced in second throughout in last, his first start of the year. This will be his initial turf attempt but his sire was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner. Might be able to follow in his father’s footsteps.   Don’t like that a barn that has been successful with turf sprinters waited until 1- SMOOTH ATTACK’s 13^th start to even enter him on turf, and that race was moved to the main track, but this gelding does have decent speed and turf pedigree and he is moving back to Illinois breds. 3-GOD GUTS N GUNS had little chance after a bad stumble at the start left him far behind the early leaders. He made up some ground but it was too little too late. However, he did finish second, versus open company, in his previous start. He’s another making his turf debut but he could be the quickest member of this field and speed is always a factor in turf sprints.

6-BLACK RAVEN stretches out. He’s been competitive in all his races but they were too short. He’s bred to run long. Guessing we’ll see considerable improvement around two turns. 5-ARCHIE THE GIZA is in from Kentucky to make his dirt debut. His previous three starts were contested on turf. He’s also racing without blinkers after a one-race test with them. They obviously weren’t liked. The speed figures from his first two races were much higher than those generated by any of his rivals but those numbers came on the lawn. We’ll see how he fares on the main track. 3-MERLOTTI and 4-ICE AXE have both run competitively at times. Either, or both, can figure in the outcome.

1-CHERRY ORCHARD finished in the money in his last four main-track starts; two sprints and two routes. He runs pretty much the same race every time. Has some new shooters to compete against here, and some droppers, but this might be the day he breaks through. 3-HANDSOFFHTEGOODS finished sixth in both races but both were against better and both were on turf. Might do better on dirt, especially with the class drop. 6-HOT CUPPA COFFEE ships in and drops sharply. He finished last in a maiden special on the turf in Indiana in his only start but he’s had some decent dirt drills since and the sharp drop could have him right where he needs to be.

7-ANOTHER MYSTERY seems to hold the class advantage. This multiple stakes winner seeks his first win of the year and needs to bounce back from a dull effort last out but he should find the pace of this race, along with easier company, to his liking. 5-BUCK MOON found a tough spot to make his turf debut but he seems to have the best speed and his pedigree suggests that he could be good on weeds. Plus, if it rains too much in the morning (blame the weatherman, not me), this race could come off the turf. 4-SONNY SMACK is hard to gauge. He won six of his 19 turf starts and often competes in stakes but hard measure the fields he’s been meeting against these. Plus, he’s shown little on turf courses listed as anything other than firm and this course might be “yielding” by post time.

4-VISIONISTA took nine starts to break his maiden and showed little in his first start against winners but he was making his turf debut in that spot. He’s back on the main track and cutting back in distance for this. Should be racing right behind the early leaders. Might edge by late. 3-CRYSTAL SNOW moves up in claiming price but turns back in distance and heads back to the main track. He seems to be quicker than the rest. Might lead throughout. 2-SEQUAYA hasn’t been able to beat easier but he a perpetual bridesmaid. He finished second in his last four races and in 13 of his 39 career starts. Might grab a share.

6-GOLDEN BELL is an interesting runner. This lightly-raced filly has had only one turf race, back when she was two. It took place at Royal Ascot, in England, and she finished 16^th of 27. She had one more race that year, at Saratoga, and finished fourth on dirt. Then, she ran twice at Monmouth in 2022, winning both starts. Then, another nine-month layoff and she showed up at Churchill this past May. Showed little there, on dirt, but now she’s here and will try her hand (hoof) at turf racing once again. She does race for one of the country’s top barns. Maybe. 2-GET NONE jumps in class but she has been a turf sprint wonder, winning eight of her 11 starts at the distance. Wouldn’t sell her short. 1-MY LIPS ARE SEALED might prefer routes but she just finished second in a turf sprint. She’s going to be attacking late. Could get there.

4-OFF RAMP won her first two races of the meet but ran into Oeuvre in last in the Jean Elizabeth. She still finished a good third. Versatile runner will meet a somewhat easier group in this spot. Could start another win streak today. 5-WHITE LIES seeks her first win of the year and takes on open company for the first time in a while but she has been in pretty good form for a while. Turns back to a sprint, which could be her preference. Might break through. 7-SOMEONE SAID SO makes her first start of the year but she has been popping some impressive workouts in preparation for her return. Figures to be tracking the pace with the abundance of speed ahead of her. Stablemate of top choice could give them a run for the money.