Handicapper Tips & Picks

Hard to separate 2-MUD HUT and 5-SISTER SAINT but think I’ll give Mud Island a slight edge, just because of familiarity with this racing surface. She has most often been running over her head but she has had three races at this level and finished second in all of them. Sister Saint could easily be favored and might deserve it. She’s dropping to meet her easiest field ever. But, don’t like the way her speed figures have been declining and her lone drill since her last start a month again was extremely slow. Makes her local debut. Might be vulnerable. 3-OPALINE might show competitive speed.

4-THEMISCHIEVOUSONE didn’t exactly impress in her lone turf race but she did lead much of the way, in a pretty tough field, prior to fading badly. Her last race was scheduled for turf but moved to dirt. Should be back on the weeds for this. The shorter distance might work in her favor.  3-MIRUS has never shown a thing, including in her lone turf race, but this is undoubtedly the easiest field she has ever met. She is bred to love the lawn. Might come alive in her local debut. 2-PACIFIC VIEW is in better form than any of her rivals. She’s trying turf for the first time but is bred for anything. She finished second in three of her five races, including last, her first turf race. Might be the first one home.

7-MEMPHIS PRAYER takes a much-needed class drop. Late runner should have more than enough pace ahead of him, especially with a few of his rivals stretching out. Can run them all down in the stretch. 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY didn’t handle the turf or the better company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he’s back on the right surface and drops back to a better level for this race. He’s meeting many that have already gone through their conditions but he has simply been in too tough for most of his career. 6-RISKY BOY could be the best of the speed. Like that he hasn’t been fading in his sprints; he just hasn’t been fast enough to keep up. That shouldn’t be a problem with the stretch out.

3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY, if she runs her race, will be tough. She has been meeting tougher for most of the year. She won the last time she ran in a starter but today she’ll be racing for the tag. 9-LONG TALL WOMAN is the one to beat. Can’t remember the last time she had a bad race. She won only one of her seven this year but she did finish in the money in all of them. There isn’t a lot of pace to set up for her but she is sharp enough to do it all on her own. Not sure what to do with 1-BLOODY MARY MORNIN. She’s been so much better on turf that you have to wonder why she is entered in a dirt race. She did have two dirt wins early in her career, however, but this just doesn’t seem like the right spot for her.

4-RED FLAG ALERT looks like the best of these. He had had some success on the main track but turf is the name of his game. He’s had only one bad turf race in the past year and he finished in the money in the rest of them; mostly in second place. His previous two Hawthorne races were on dirt. Guessing his local turf debut will be a winning one. 2-FLY NIGHTLY moves up in class after winning his last two and getting claimed from his last. He’s one of two in this race that have been victorious on turf eight times. Wouldn’t surprise if he added to that total. 5-SIERRA HOTEL, the other eight-time turf winner, finished up the track in two of his last four turf races but he won the other two. His losses were in short sprints, his two wins were in two-turn races. Good speed will have him racing close to the pace. Could take over late.

9-SPECIALIZIN looks tough. She won her career debut and finished second in all three races since. She drew the outside post but has enough speed to clear the field quickly and never look back. Specializin does seem like the best of the speed but it’s possible that she’ll face more early pressure than expected and, if that happens, things could set up for a closer. Think 1-RAINY MOUNTAIN and 8-CANDY KICK are a couple of runners capable of surprising if a heated pace does develop. Rainy Mountain is an Illinois bred facing open company but she finished in the money in eight of nine races, often meeting open company. Candy Kick makes her first start of the year but she had a couple good drills in preparation. Can come from far back and finish with a full head of steam.

7-SWEET CRYSTAL wired the fields in her two local starts. She’s meeting better today but she is still the one they are going to have to catch. 2-BEG BORROW N STEAL could hold a class edge over the rest in here. This filly drops to meet her easiest field ever. She’ll have to run down the early speed but seems more than capable at this level. 10-TALKTOMEJUSTICE could play the role of upsetter. This mare turns back in distance after pressing the pace and finishing second in a swiftly-run route race in her local debut. Like that she raced evenly throughout. There is plenty of forward pace to set up for a late runner and she could fill that description admirably at this shorter distance.