Handicapper Tips & Picks

It is interesting to note that 2-FROSTED TEMPTATION was scheduled to race on turf in both of his prior starts but both races were moved to the main track. He didn’t fare too well in those races so they drop him to the basement and enter him on dirt. Not sure why the drop and not sure why he wasn’t entered back on the lawn but have to give him the benefit of the doubt at this level and will probably have to wait to see if he is better on the lawn in future races. 6-UNCAPTURED DREAM has been just missing. He finished second in all three of his races at this level. This could be the day he graduates. 4-CHERRY ORCHARD drops, turns back in distance and moves back to the main track. He's generally competitive when meeting this type. 

Was impressed with the last race by 6-FREDDY J. That was his first turf race, his first race with blinkers, and he did have front wraps. The fractions of that race weren’t especially fast but he showed strong acceleration in the stretch to get up for second, less than a length back. He’s likely to be a price again today with a couple runners in here that look like they might hold a class edge but one of them never ran on turf and the other has proven to be vulnerable on this surface. 4-DANCE SOME MO, the morning-line favorite, graduated in a $100k turf maiden at Churchill in 2021 but has been seeking his second win ever since. He finished third in his local debut, on turf, and second on the dirt in last. Both those races were routes. He’s turning back in distance for this but the last time he ran in a turf sprint he finished last. We’ll see. 2-NULLABAR wired the field, on dirt, at Santa Anita, to graduate early this year but he hasn’t shown a thing since. Got claimed by this barn two races back and will make his turf debut today. His main advantage is that he seems to be the quickest member of this field that is relatively devoid of honest sprint speed at this level. Can’t ignore 7-FOLLOW THE SIGNS. He’s jumping in class and coming off a terrible race on dirt but he did have a ton of trouble in that race and he has done very well on turf in the past. 

Giving the edge to 3-MINNESOTA MOON. This recent grad has been running far better lately with two seconds and that win from his last four main track races. He’s not the quickest member of this field but he should never be more than a couple lengths off the lead and he’s a proven finisher. 2-SHARP AZ NAILS drops. He tired when stretched out in last but he did run better in previous route races and he’ll be meeting easier company with the drop into claiming NW2. 4-SLAVA UKRAINI drops to face his easiest field since his maiden victory. He has better early speed than most in here. Could be sent right to the lead. 

Having a hard time separating the runners in this field. Can make a case for, and against, all of them. Probably have to give the nod to 3-HIGH BROW but it’s a barely perceptible nod. This stalker is always in the hunt and he possesses some of the highest speed figures of any in here but he’s been coming up short all year. Might again. 2-GLOBAL EMPIRE could be the main competition. He’s also been running competitively in starters. Might use the talented runner Gun Rush as a gauge. When High Brow met Gun Rush in last, he lost by over five lengths. When Global Empire met that rival, he only lost by a little over three. Plus, he finished ahead of High Brow in last. His price is also likely to be higher. 5-CONI'S COUP needed last. He tired in that race after leading for about three quarters but he was running for the first time since September. He could be softened up a bit with Souper Fortune fighting for the lead but doubt if that rival will hang on for long. This gelding might have enough left to hold off the late runners. 

I like the chances of 4-R KATIEBUG. This lightly-raced filly makes her turf debut but she is a full sister of multiple stakes winner Katie M’Lady who has been equally brilliant on turf and dirt. 8-SUMMER DAY usually runs competitively but she’s been having a tough time getting to the winner’s circle. She broke her maiden in 2019 and won a first level allowance in November of 2020. She, it’s been nearly three years since she won. But, she has finished in the money in eight of her last 11 starts. Maybe this will be the day she gets the job done. 1-MOM'S TOWN makes her first start of the year. Her previous turf races and her form when she was running didn’t impress but this will be the first time that she meets Illinois breds on the lawn. 

5-WIN THE CUP is working like a good one. Runners from this barn often win at first asking and this one might do it at a price. The well-bred 6-BLACK RAVEN looks like the one to beat. He finished third in his career debut and then finished a better second in his last start. Worked easily since that last start. Could be ready to run by them all. 1-LIL RIVER ran well in his career debut. He pressed the pace early, running in second for most of the race, but just ran out of gas late. He should be fitter with that race under his belt. Might lead throughout. Also like the drills of 8-MAX A MILLI. Has to be worth another look. 

8-GET N TIPSY should finally be back on her preferred surface. This is possibly the easiest field she ever met. Expect a big wake up, probably at a big price. Most of the runners in here would be just as comfortable on the main track but think this race will stay on the weeds despite the rain on Friday night/Saturday morning. If they do stay on the lawn it’s possible that 10-EMBARRASSING will awaken. She hasn’t beaten many in her two recent starts but her race two back was her first start since November and she was probably in too tough in last. With two recent starts under her belt, along with a drop back to the right level, she could get back on track. 7-STACY'S ATTACK is a threat on either surface. With her good early speed, she just might be in control throughout.