Handicapper Tips & Picks

It is tough to trust the “logicals” in this field that have come up short at today’s $6250k maiden claiming condition. Assessing that group: #6 UNCAPTURED DREAM looks to hold an edge of the group in terms of pace looking at the Plot with tactical speed (Quad I) and finishing ability (Square) drawn outside of #1 STAN THE CAMERAMAN. #7 BLACK RUSSIAN has a pattern of SLOG going back to his debut though should look to stalk with first run along with #4 CHERRY ORCHARD.

#3 CRUSING ALTITUDE is the “new face” at this level. Number wise he is softer coming into this race though finds a couple positive changes such as the drop and the key distance change for a horse that appears as a SPRINTER and finds himself with the SHORTER today exiting the route races. #2 FROSTED TEMPTATION has similar upside with the class relief, though given the connections projects to be shorter of the two. 

#4 DANCE SOME MO is the class of the field and positioned here as the horse to beat, however finds a distance change cutting back to a sprint – that being the one unknown and hurdle on a runner that projects to be a shorter price in this race.

#1 CYCLONE ATTACK is given the preference over stablemate #3 MAN ON ATTACK in this spot. He has been pointed to this type of race, looking to stay on the turf and could have intent waiting for this race (scratch 7/9 races taken off the turf) and coming back with Esquivel today.

#6 FREDDY J was given a longshot look earlier this season as a runner with upside and progressive form. He showed that move forward and a solid effort over the turf, his first start on the surface making a tight inside (SAVED ROOM) MOVE and continued with a solid GALLOP+ once getting into the clear. He is another that has been looking to get back to the turf noting a scratch with the surface switch back on July 16^th, that race scheduled at a route distance.

#7 FOLLOW THE SIGNS was given a look this season getting to the TURF, a surface he physically looks suited to and had not races over since late last season. His class prevailed picking up the win on June 14^th, though came back first off the claim two weeks ago and unable to overcome the legit TROUBLE+ from start to finish and given an EX – EXCUSE on the day. He will be significantly class tested back at the allowance level, a level he has come up short at in the past, though given a mention as he does project to improve from the most recent start and on the turf. 

#1 IZEONDEC might have been looking for the race to shift to the dirt back on May 18^th and projected IMPROVE-ment in his second start of the season. He had a legit EX - EXCUSE on April 13^th with legit TROUBLE and still showing run making a WIDE MOVE – those trips impacting his Plot position and shape. He was entered on June 15th in an N2L claiming race at Ellis Park and a likely wise “trainer scratch” given this one’s RunStyle coming from off-the-pace, a trip that is not suited to the Ellis Park main track profile.

As far as pace, the pace should at the least be contentious with #2 SHARP AZ NAILS and #3 MINNESOTA MOON in the field. #6 T LAW came from off the pace to break his maiden back in May at Churchill Downs, though had trouble at the start (TROUBLE_S) and the race prior showed early speed and could get back to that trip here. #4 SLAVA UKRANI has early speed as well, his lone win, the maiden score here back in April was LONE on the lead with the track profile (BIAS) in his favor. #5 GOLD SMOKE will be tested here as well stepping up to take on winners, though has foundation and another with a favorable running style for today’s race to keep him in the mix today. 

#3 HIGH BROW is still looking for his first win this season, though has run strong races and recorded a B OptixGRADE at today’s allowance condition back on March 19^th. That race he had TROUBLE_S and TROUBLE in running carried WIDE when making a MOVE and was likely cost the race that day.

#4 PATH TO SUCCESS turned in a BTL race at this level with the place finish back in April, though recorded a B- OptixGRADE, a GRADE he has continued to run in the races following and would need to find more to win.

Distance wise, not sold on #5 CONI’S COUP as a router from his visuals, though has the route experience and could be a favorable pace scenario for this one holding early speed and looking to be the “speed of the speed” in this race. Trip looks to again be the hurdle for #2 GLOBAL EMPIRE, one that makes his run from off the pace (Quad IV Square) and needs pace to run at to have his best chance to win. 

#8 SUMMER DAY requires a strong ride and could be the reason for the change here as Mojica jumps aboard for the first time. Her form this season has been progressive and fits back under today’s allowance conditions returning to the turf and even the slight change in distance here, a shift in her favor. Trip wise she should be able to stalk right off the pacesetters (Quad I) and look for first run with a solid closing kick (Square) as shown on OptixPLOT. #7 COWGIRL FRANKIE has the tendency to SLOG though also has a solid Square/late kick and looks to benefit with the move back to allowance company and turf as well.

#1 MOM’S TOWN projects to get a lot of attention returning from the layoff for Rivelli. She could step up making her first start as a three-year-old, though gives up a lot of recency and form to others in the field and must come back today with a much improved jump in speed figures to compete with others to win.

#2 JULYNNE showed a lot of ability to break her maiden on debut given the trip and adversity after a poor start and making a MOVE against (X_FLOW) the dynamic to win and by open lengths at the wire. She projected to take a step back off that HARD effort especially with the connections bringing her back on three weeks. She improved on July 18^th and still lightly raced could see another move forward from her. #4 R KATIEBUG showed legit early speed making a RUSH into a Very Fast (VF RS1) pace and staying on as the BOS. She was given a stiff test coming back to take on open company and gave an honest account of herself on July 12^th. She will stretch out and making a turf debut and would expect Felix to be aggressive right from the start and look to steal the race on the lead. 

#6 BLACK RAVEN caught the eye in his debut as one to follow and came back with an improved BTL place finish in that second start and quick one-week turnaround on June 18^th. He has been given the time since those two starts and looks well-intended for today’s event.

#9 POWER ALLEY has recorded some of the higher OptixFIG in the field and looks to move up on this circuit on that alone. Still he requires a top effort and from his visuals does present as a TURF horse (similar visuals on #3 STROLLNTOTHEMARKET), the surface they were looking for on July 1^st at Belterra Park.

#8 MAX A MILLI has had some setbacks reading between the lines of the published works, though looks to have some run. He will require being race ready and one to follow on prerace visuals including the board. #5 WIN THE CUP has some similar setbacks and could require a race today and is one of a few IL-bred runners in this field.

Santiago often has the call for Becker and lands on #2 SECRET HONOR making his second start today and shipping in for Bahena. On debut he showed early speed making a RUSH for position and ground loss (WIDE) getting a bit tired late. A similar trip overall was in play for #1 LIL RIVER here on July 13^th (common race with the other Perez runner, #4 AMBER EDGE) and must improve here as well. Those two projecting to show early speed and potential upside should keep the pressure on #7 LARRY THE POET as he returns to the sprint distance and MSW level first off the claim for Jose Rodriguez. 

#5 CELESTIAL SPIN one that has not had a legit chance to run on the grass this meet, and the connections have been patient waiting for a grass race, noting a pair of scratches with the surface switch from July 9^th and July 12th. As far as her races this season, she had an EX – EXCUSE with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th and poor timing (TACTIC-) with the WIDE trip on June 4^th has not allowed her a fair chance to compete and given a look back in this spot run under similar conditions.

#4 APRIL'S GEM could also be sitting on a peak effort returning to the turf as she makes her second start off the claim for Rosas. 

The pace scenario with the MTO runners unlikely to compete can assist #6 MY LADY SLEW with her RunStyle and early speed. She was class tested in allowance company and not on that level following her N3L claiming win back on May 18^th and will be her first start back in for the tag and turf since that event. The class change should also assist #8 GET N TIPSY as she makes her return to Hawthorne, the turf and in this second start back off the layoff. Haran took this spot rather than the turf sprint on July 26^th, the route distance preferred for this mare.

#1 ZANDREA’S has not quite been to her top form this season, though has had some subtle excuses at times. She does require a “form reversal” though her back numbers over this course and condition put her back in the mix and one to monitor as she projects to be a big number in this race. Her stablemate #2 NO NANETTE NO could be a little more “obvious” with the competitive B- OptixGRADE effort back on June 4^th, the common race, and slightly shorter odds that day. Placement and timing of the two starts that followed could be some excuse and coming back to the grass with Mojica aboard could present intent today to see her cycle back to a top effort. #10 EMBARRASSING could also get overlooked off her recent form and finishing positions. She has back numbers and class that make her a player in this race as well as form this season keying off the BTL effort in her layoff return back in that June 4^th common race.