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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 30th, 2023

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Carryover Strategies

Del Mar Race 6

Post Time 6:39 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

RACE 6: #9 TROPICANA GIRL is a major player in this race and tough to see the morning line holding on her. He a has win at this $10k level back in March at Santa Anita and has held her form against a slightly higher (and protected starter allowance group) last out. She has tactical speed and reunites with the win rider from earlier this season. Her stablemate #10 WRONG TURN CUPID fits with similar form and the two from a common race back on May 27th. Both are useable for coverage, prefer 9.

#3 COWBOY’S DAUGHTER is coming off a layoff though as an individual has won at this level and also has recorded competitive races and figures here at Del Mar. The barn is capable with these type of claiming runners and appears intent with Vazquez aboard. #7 JASMINE CHIEFTAIN looks to have intent for a Del Mar return as she makes her second start back off the layoff in what looked to be a prep on June 9th. She has struggled to win here over the years though has shown run in spots and has been pointed to this meet where similar again looks in play today. Assael Espinoza taking over also presents intent as these two have had success in the past.

RACE 7: #4 RIFEY has shown TURF visuals going back to last season and the connections see fit to take this spot wheeling back in 9-days from a BTL effort against open company.

The rails at 12’ yesterday upgraded saw many winners from a similar Plot position and noted with #2 SHORTMAN, #5 CALIFORNIA BAY, #7 WORSE READ SANCHEZ and #11 MAMBA COOL in that position today.

RACE 8: #3 GATE TO PARADISE looks to be a talent. She has shown gate speed, overall speed, and the ability to pass horses. She comes into this race with valid hype and live on debut. Similar looks in play for #7 THERMAL for Sadler another that looks ready first out with legit speed – even her June 5th work under a hold for the half mile.

#9 CHATALAS has a long work tab, some solid published times, though does not have video to match those times to visuals. #10 JUST BE YOU for Hollendorfer worked in blinkers, broke slow out of the gate on July 22nd before moving up on her workmate. She ultimately might need a start, more ground and has some turf visuals as well.

Miller will send out a pair with #2 ACOUSTIC MELODY bringing the higher auction price, though #5 INTO YELLOWSTONE could be the most “ready” for today’s debut and shorter distance.

RACE 9: #9 COUNT AGAIN is the horse to beat though has the layoff today and coming back as an 8yo. The challenge comes in trying to beat him in this race as any of the others in this race could win if he falters.

RACE 10: #1 PERFECT FLIGHT has two one-turn races on his form that are “dirtying” up his form. One of those is his most recent start at Churchill Downs back in late May. He had a subtle trip that day acting up in the gate, shuffled back from the rail and made a wide move against the flow, not asked late as the top two were already clear and together at the wire – one of those being Three Technique that came back to win the G2 Nerud in his next start.

Amador Sanchez came into the 2022 Del Mar season as a force with 10 starts, four winners and all with Berrios in the saddle. They comes into this race with south American stakes winner #8 MBAGNICK one that has been working solidly at GP and posting a recent bullet here at Del Mar.

The value projected on #6 DIVINE ARMOR keeps him in the mix as one that looks solid on the Plot.

RACE 11: Using the same turf Plot profile, #2 RUSSELLS HUSTLE, #4 MEGA MOON, #5 FAST CHAD, #7 ST IGNACIO and #12 MUCINO (AE) stack up in this race.