Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ARCH FLYER should find the right trip today sitting right off #6 COOKIN ROSES and taking over with first run as shown as a Square in Quad I. The trip is key to have the edge over a familiar rival in #5 GHAALEB’S MAGIC also returning today.

#1 HER GOLD MINE comes back off a battle and tough beat finishing in a photo on July 16^th. She had a longshot look that day with sneaky form at 6f and ran to it. She returns to that preferred distance though has a tough task as far as holding form on the quick turnaround. 

The race shape is tricky with the lower SpeedRate, a “Sun” Contention and the front runners all EP types, no real “need the lead” runners in this field. #3 MEDICINE TAIL could take up that role and look to improve as he makes his second start of the form cycle. Going back two weeks to the July 14^th race, he projected to show early speed though based on the paddock visuals (PRERACE-) suggested that day was not going to be his day. He will wheel right back, find both a rider and class change paired with the fitness to suggest he is in a better spot today to compete and will assess his visuals on race day as well.

#5 GAME BOY BENNY took up the role as a pacesetter for his stablemate winner, Danville on June 29^th. The softer pace (FLOW) and LONE lead assisted to hold for place and should benefit with the return to sprinting this afternoon.

#6 LYKAN lands here making his first start for the claiming tag, class change for this gelding following a vet scratch at this higher $50k Optional Claiming event on July 19th. As far as his form this season, he should move up in this field off his races here this meet naturally though the recent scratch and drop is something to assess as far as value as there are the reason to have some pause attached.

#7 YOU’RE IN COREY is a bit of an outsider on the win end, though holds form coming into this race and form over this track sprinting to get a share at a price. He has the recency edge returning to Hawthorne over #1 BASEBALL POLITICS one that fits off his form this year, though is another in this field showing up for the tag today after a vet scratch (6/10 at PRM) from an allowance race.

#2 TRY TRY AGAIN will race today for the tag, though as far as class this is a step up for him off the races this season, closer in terms of par/OFR to the June 25^th event. #4 LATIN CASINO holds the edge of the two on that front, though overall does not have much of an edge has been fortunate in terms of trip with the two wins under similar conditions with the LONE win back on April 13^th and prevailing in a BLANKET finish on June 15^th. 

This race is quite the toss up and trip looks to be the key to the outcome as many in this field share similar form and figures. #4 MASQUERADE BALL is one to get creative with as he could sit the trip and holds some buried form to compete in this race. Going back to May 11^th his first start here this season, he looked to need softer given the DROP Keyword and today’s race has a lower 73-76 OFR than the 78-72 from earlier this season. He had trip/form adversity over the turf on June 7^th and stepped up showing a sneaky CLOSE in the July 7^th sprint. Rosas wheels right back for this spot and return to the preferred route of ground.

#2 STOLICH has form and Surface/Distance (Plot) form to make him one of the more “obvious” types in this field, something that could just be enough to win. The sophomore runner lacked a strong edge and there were alternatives in the July 5^th race that had him an underlay that afternoon as the betting favorite.

#2 ICE AXE recorded a BTL effort with adversity to finish second here under similar conditions three weeks ago; though #6 MERLOTTI could be the one to take from that event (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines, as he had legit TROUBLE and a trip that compromised his chances for a better finishing position – both horses earning the same B- OptixGRADE.

In addition to ICE AXE, Perex returns with #5 MANUEVER one that also turned in a B- OptixGRADE in his debut and could move up off that race for this second start with added ground and where Lezcano ends up.

#7 BOONE’S PATH has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and could have that edge in this group. With that said and following this one since his debut and on this circuit has shown some distance limitation, factor that played a role with the place finish here back on December 31^st. #1 RICKY’S BEST is a “wild card” in this race, he debuted late last season and capable of improvement given the trip (SLOG, NO_PUSH with open length winner and field spaced out at the wire) along with his age, maturity, and current works to suggest he still has a lot more to show. 

The pace could be more contentious than it appears (Yellow PlotFit) on the Plot as #1 JUST A WONDER and #2 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL have the ability to be out in front early; the race shape could still work to the benefit of #7 PLUS CHIC as she holds the outside post and tactical speed to dictate the trip and adjust as required with that draw. She comes into this race with progressive for and improving speed figures as she returns to sprinting and the turf, her preferred surface/distance.

#4 MY LIPS ARE SEALED fits as a contender on class and speed figures though will be tested with today’s sprint distance, a change for her and a second choice spot by the connections as the races came off the turf on July 13^th (8.5f turf) at this condition and this spot might be the only available option.

Childers has a solid pair in this race: #6 CHROME ATTACK comes in with the higher figures though could be peaked in her form cycle and a tougher task looking to pair wins. #5 LIPLINER must hold her form and requires a top effort, though could look to pair as she makes her second start of the cycle and off a BTL effort with a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) by Giles on June 18^th. 

This is a solid field lined up for the Work All Week stakes as there are many quality and hard knocking race horses in this race. The early pace should be set and contentious with #1 KAVOD and #6 TAPE TO TAPE both shown in Quad I above the Par Line and with both runners “Circles” could set up for a stalker. #2 NAVY SEAL and #3 WENT WEST should look for that exact trip and have the edge as Squares over #7 DEVIL’S TOWER. They will be required to keep those quality pacesetters in range to compete for the top spot. Their Plot position and form is upgraded overall and in terms of trip over #5 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE and #4 W W CANDY, the Quad IV pair.

#2 NAVY SEAL ran in this race last year though was not in his top form at the time and required a 126-day layoff after. He has held his form this season and given some local conditioning in the June 11^th allowance recording a B- OptixGRADE with a CLOSE after the SLOG. He has worked steadily since, the flashy work horse or one that posts fast times in the morning and has Olaf Hernandez back in the saddle to suggest intent.

#3 WENT WEST is an easier one to get to “on paper” with the higher speed figures and stakes form. His current form also fits in this second start off the layoff with some intent pointed for this race. Going back to the June 11^th layoff return, he looked to be given the “PREP” based off the visuals; the signs he was cold on the board and also in-running looked short on fitness for that race day. 

#6 TAPERINEA should move up as she projects to IMPROVE off the June 21^st allowance. The class change and projected pace with the higher 75 SpeedRate should suit her RunStyle with today’s dynamic tracking as a Square from Quad II/IV. #5 COMMAND POINT shows a similar Plot position for today’s race though will be class tested with the rise, something she could handle at the right price coming off the B+ OptixGRADE.

#1 PRANCIPANTS also looks to step up in class from the $10k level, though looks to be a bigger hurdle for her with the top 81 OptixFIG two weeks ago and B OptixGRADE. The class change showing up on this circuit is a more lateral move for #7 CHARGE ACCOUNT, one that could be running here with the lack of turf racing at Gulfstream Park right now.

#4 MIZZEN ASH is another that projects to move up today and step up under similar conditions from the June 21^st race. The timing was off for her that afternoon peaking in her form cycle from the two prior grass races out at HS Indy and looked “over the top” showing up here on short rest. She has been given proper rest with the 36-days following that form cycle and should return to a top effort here.

#3 MORRIE’S JOY is given a  look in here at long odds she can outrun. She comes into this race with steadily improving form in this third start back off the layoff and they key class DROP to take another move forward and now in the right spot for her abilities to compete.  #8 CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR is another that a longshot case can be made for in this event. She has back numbers that fit on par and could show improvement today in her second start for Rodriguez noting she was a NO_PUSH and looked to be “given/PREP” the July 5^th start and likely to be on the lead (Quad I) today.