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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun June 18th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Ghaaleb's Magic - 5/2 3 Mi Crescendo - 9/2 2 Arch Flyer - 5/1

Competitive race opens the card as many of these have traded wins during the meet. 1-GHAALEB'S MAGIC ran a very nice race last out as she settled in the second flight and ran on late. With the rail draw, she should get a perfect stalking trip once again. 3-MI CRESCENDO may close from a bit further back. She made a good showing in her first start of the meet and drops slightly to this spot. 2-ARCH FLYER has tactical speed as she could be in a pressing position today. She pulled off an upset score at 22-1 last out and should get first run on the pacesetter in here today.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Command Point - 5/2 7 Safe Travels - 4/1 2 No Nannette No - 5/1

Slightly different race complexion today from the last time this group met when Prancipants was able to steal that race. There's a bit more pace in here and a course that has evened out a bit as well. 3-COMMAND POINT was the beaten favorite in that last start but ran a solid race. Expect her to settle once again but this time run by in the lane. 7-SAFE TRAVELS runs for a barn that has had a very good last couple of weeks, especially with turf runners. She does have some speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She also has some back class as she comes out of a much tougher turf allowance last time out. 2-NO NANNETTE NO comes out of the same race as Command Point last out. That was her first time back on the grass in nearly a year. She also settled in that race but ran on nicely late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Barefootbootlegger - 9/5 5 Idea Man - 5/1 1 Nyoman - 5/2

With a pair likely to show speed in here, 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could get the perfect pace setup today. He was in a bit too tough in his last but has found the right spot sprinting as he has shown the ability to close quickly late. Look for him to save ground early and rally in the lane. 5-IDEA MAN should also benefit from the pace upfront as he closed well for the score in his last. The added 16th should help as he has looked sharp in his three starts on the year. 1-NYOMAN has a lot of back class as the 11yo still has some good races in him. He is 28/37 ITM at Hawthorne and run his best when rating just off the early pace. Let's see if the drop helps him as well.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Soviet Standard - 2/1 6 Uncle Dick - 9/2 4 I'm Your Captain - 7/2

Intent is the key here as 1-SOVIET STANDARD scratched out of a tougher spot during the week for this race. He has speed, has run well at this level, and gets the bug in the saddle. Look for him to try to kick away early and never look back. 6-UNCLE DICK is hoping for a contested pace upfront as he should be closing in the lane. He ran a good race in his maiden score two back with Tavares in the saddle and had some late run last out in a spot that turned out to produce some solid return races. 4-I'M YOUR CAPTAIN is the other with some early speed but he has yet to repeat his sharp maiden score from April. Have to think he tries to push things upfront today as the class drop should also help him chances.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Cowgirl Frankie - 6/1 2 Summer Day - 9/5 1 Quilting Party - 5/1

State-bred turf runners as some of these may look to the stake on the grass next month. 4-COWGIRL FRANKIE is in with an upset shot as her last two races have been solid. She closed well to run fourth in the Third Chance behind a very good winner and lane ran on late on the grass last out. There's pace to chase in here as she could get a perfect trip. 2-SUMMER DAY was the heavy favorite in this spot last out. She got a perfect trip and led late. Maybe she needed that race as it was her first start of the year so we will see if she improves in her second out. 1-QUILTING PARTY has been good in her last two as she figures to rate mid-pack early and look to move in the lane. This will be only her second start on the grass in her career but she held her own last out.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Black Raven - 4/1 5 Mare's Gunner - 5/1 7 Manta Rey - 3/1

There's a good amount of pace in this race which may set things up for 8-BLACK RAVEN to rally late. He ran a respectable race in his debut and wheels back quickly. Look for him to tuck in from the outside draw and rally in the lane. 5-MARE'S GUNNER was highly regarded on debut as he was sent away as the 6-5 favorite. He showed some speed before giving way in the lane. Give him another shot as he should be a better price today. 7-MANTA REY ran good races at Oaklawn this spring for a barn that has had a good meet. He will also benefit from a possible fast pace upfront as he should be rallying late.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Groveland - 9/5 1 G T Five Hundred - 9/2 2 Dance Some Mo - 5/1

At one time this spring the connections of 3-GROVELAND had to feel they were on the Derby trail. He ran a good second in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa before finishing eighth in the Tampa Bay Derby. He gets Lasix for the first time here as he should get a perfect tracking trip. 1- G T FIVE HUNDRED moves back to the main track after facing a tough bunch on the grass last out. He shouldn't be too far off the pace either as he may try to get the jump on Groveland. 2-DANCE SOME MO has some speed and also has some back class. He was good on the turf last out but shows an incredibly fast work over this Hawthorne dirt surface as well.