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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri June 16th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
7 Dendera 2 Built Different

The pace projects to be contested and honest setting up for #2 BUILT DIFFERENT and #7 DENDERA. As far as form/class/speed both horses fit there as well #2 BUILT DIFFERENT has improved and pushed through adversity in each start giving her consideration here and a follow heading to Del Mar. #7 DENDERA recorded a B OptixGRADE at this starter allowance level back on April 7th and should benefit from the class relief returning from the WIDE trip three weeks ago. The pace and distance could be a challenge for #6 ICE QUEEN though is worthy of a mention coming off a legit EX - EXCUSE two weeks ago. 

Santa Anita Race 2

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As far as the first time starters, #7 WHISKEY WILD could be the best suited and prepared for today's race and the 5f distance. She worked a quick and efficient 9.4 at the OBS March sale and while she has been at the SLR training center unable to get a look at her since, she has been consistent in terms of the published moves, topped off with the gate bullet on June 11th. 

#3 SHE'S MY NIECE looks to have the edge over those with experience. She improved off a GREEN debut showing speed and solid second place finish behind a well-meant first time starter, Becky's Dream - one that will be running in the Fasig-Tipton Debutante stakes on Saturday. Her O'Neill trained stablemate #5 THEY ARE FOR SALE looked to need some race experience and has that here returning from the May 27th common race. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
7 Burnin Turf

This is a competitive and quality race where many in this field have the credentials to win. That could see #7 BURNIN TURF "get lost on the board" as a runner that comes into this event with current form in his third start of the form cycle and favorable position (Quad I Square) on OptixPLOT. He will also return with some further changes to suggest intent with the re-addition of blinkers and rider change to Vasquez from a "colder" VanDyke. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
7 Kid Corleone

O'Neill has been sending out live runners as of late and that could present the right timing for #7 KID CORLEONE showing up here in his first start back off the 258-day layoff and appears ready keying off couple "bullets" working in May. He has legit early speed that could present a pace advantage in today's race shape and the required first run on #6 AMERICAN THEOREM, another quality type making their first start back this season. Both are capable in this spot and runners to follow at Del Mar as that does appear the intent and goal for the connections. 

Santa Anita Race 5

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

O'Neill could be sitting on back-to-back wins with #3 UNJOKABLE as one that could hold a pace advantage in this group. She has shown early speed and coming back from a BOS, B OptixGRADE place finish under similar conditions on May 26th.

Both #5 DANCING MO and #7 SIDE BY SIDE should take up a stalking role here though lacking some early speed compared to UNJOKABLE. 

In just a second start #2 SWEET MOTHER MARY could present a move forward and some upside off the debut WIDE trip over #4 LIL TOWN SIS also returning from the May 26th common race. 

Santa Anita Race 6

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
6 True Patriot
#6 TRUE PATRIOT could get overlooked in this race coming back off a slight freshening and running line on April 28th. The rider TACTIC- compromised her chances (TROUBLE+ WIDE) overall and was not asked for run late. Off those visuals she looks capable to compete and as projected will return with a rider change. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Alvarez returns with the pair from May 26th to make a second start. #10 WORK N FLIRT came closing (B OptixGRADE) catching the eye with a big late run (GALLOP+) after having TROUBLE_S and ground loss (X_WIDE) in the place finish. Her stablemate #6 JUST IS while not as impactful late, was X_WIDE up close to the early pace - a less than ideal (TACTIC-) position.

#7 STRANGE ADDICTION also earned a follow from her debut on May 28th - the BTL effort from a SLOG to making a run through TRAFFIC, TROUBLE and still running on/CLOSE late for show. 

Santa Anita Race 8

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The pace should be contested and honest (Sun/50 SpeedRate) to set up  runners from off the pace with finishing ability. #7 PEPPERMINT FLIRT is on the softer side number wise though turned in a competitive effort at this level three weeks ago with a less than ideal (TACTIC-) trip; #8 DOLLY MAY has flashed ability at times and should be in her best conditions today at this level and for Cerin, a barn that has been sending out very live runners as of late. 

#4 POINT AND SHOOT is another that could benefit from the pace scenario with her late run, though must all around step up off her races to date at this level and against open. #10 TRAVEL SMART also could get a trip - the ride will be key from the post and for Hernandez something noted as the jockey/trainer combination projects to be a popular public selection. 

Santa Anita Race 9

Post Time 7:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Baffert will send out a pair including #2 HOME COOKING coming back from the layoff. She was highly regarded making her debut last year and continued to run well at Del Mar and prior to the layoff. She will give up recency returning here and could need the start as well as intent for Del Mar. #7 PLEASANT has the benefit of some recency making her debut a winning one back in March. She has been off the three months since and while she did record a strong number first out did have a favorable trip. Hernandez lands here noting he had been aboard #5 CLEARLY UNHINGED for the SA Oaks (G2) with Rispoli picking up the mount for a third rider in as many starts. 

Santa Anita Race 10

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The finale is a tough race to narrow down and spreading appears the right strategy with so many close on form, figures, run style and at the same time many tougher to trust taking a class drop and with documented layoff lines.

#2 TRUSTY RUSTY is worth inclusion as a runner with current form looks placed right today according to his abilities. The class drop is not as concerning as he had been in a the maiden claiming level, in for a tag earlier this year. The surface switch is in play and could be overlooked off the one turf start back in February. The class, timing and distance played a bigger role than the surface and based on his visuals coming off the races in May should handle the TURF.