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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu June 15th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Gyurza 1 Sequaya 2 Bells of Joy

Seems like the class drop and move back to the dirt will make 4-GYURZA very tough to beat. There's no pace in the race as she could even inherit the lead and slow things down on the front end. 1-SEQUAYA returns one week after a good effort while sprinting at this level. She gets weight off in the saddle as she could pick up the pieces late. 2-BELLS OF JOY could be interesting as she almost always sprints but has had a bit of route success on her career. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little bit of early speed from her in here.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 One Ace 2 Ancient Man 1 Cherry Orchard

Another tough route race to figure as against there is not a ton of pace in this race. 4-ONE ACE is a horse that has improved in each start as the lightly raced 3yo may benefit from the added distance. If he gets away in good order, there's a chance he could make the top. 2-ANCIENT MAN looks to take action on the class drop. The starts three and four races back while facing much tougher would make him very tough to beat in this spot. 1-CHERRY ORCHARD ran an improved race in his last. He rated closer early in that spot and ran evenly through the lane. Let's see if he looks to show some speed from the inside in here.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Tahoe Run 5 Larry the Poet 6 Gone Again

Both 3-TAHOE RUN and 5-LARRY THE POET scratched from a sprint at this level on Sunday for the two turn race. Tahoe Run is overdue for the maiden score, but his last couple are strong enough to make him a top threat in here. 5-LARRY THE POET could show some speed on the stretch in distance as he makes his second career start. This race doesn't have a ton of pace so let's see if he clears and never looks back. 6-GONE AGAIN ran an improved race with the move to Hawthorne in his last. He did have a couple of short stretch, two turn races at Oaklawn this spring as it is hard to get a gauge on if he likes the route or not as he encountered trouble in both of those starts.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Sailing Solo 4 Temper Tantrum 5 Captivating Moon

Despite only a field of six in here, this is a quality bunch. Looks like 3-SAILING SOLO has the potential to steal this one as he makes his third start back off the long layoff. The time away is the only concern but he looked like himself as he battled throughout in his last. 4-TEMPER TANTRUM is the other to show some speed in this spot. He makes his first start of the year and has had some success over this course, including a third place performance in the 2021 Hawthorne Derby. 5-CAPTIVATING MOON will have to hope the top two choices battle on the front end as he will need some pace to chase. He closed well here in his last and may sneak away at a bit of a price.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Risky Boy 4 Imperial Moment 3 Hatchet Creek

Thinking today has to be the day for 6-RISKY BOY as he has been knocking on the door at this level all meet long. He should rate close as there isn't a ton of early pace in this race. 4-IMPERIAL MOMENT comes in off the claim as he makes his first start of the meet. He is one that is going to need some pace to chase as he tends to rate back early and make one run in the lane. 3-HATCHET CREEK ran a race two back that would make him tough to beat in here but was a bit disappointing in his last. The inconsistency is what could make him tough to play if the price is too short.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 On K P 1 Peruvian Lucky 5 Faithful Ruler

Seems like the pace should be honest upfront as things may set up nicely for 7-ON K P today. If you get back to his turf starts from last fall, he has shown good tactical speed as he should be able to tuck in just off the early pace. 1-PERUVIAN LUCKY comes in from Maryland for this start as he has had some turf success as well. The inside trip will help as he should save ground the entire way and run on late. 5-FAITHFUL RULER is one with speed who ran a big race in Kentucky last out. Let's see if he is the fastest early or if he finds some company on the front end.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Sangfroid 5 Evie Jean 7 Gettin Down

I liked 6-SANGFROID last out and expect she will improve in her second start off the year layoff. She looked to take a bit to get into the race in her last but then showed some life in the lane. 5-EVIE JEAN usually gets dismissed at the windows but has some some decent races on the meet. She showed more speed in her last and hung around into the lane. 7-GETTIN DOWN is the one that figures to try to clear in here as she takes the big class drop today. She has tired in her first two starts and the only concern is how much company she may have upfront early.