Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 GYURZA has shown speed figure progression with each start and fits with that pattern in with today’s group. That subtle improvement gave her a look back on May 14^th with the maiden win, a game effort on the day. She was protected, stepped up in class and shifted to the turf on June 1^st, her first start against winners and should benefit from that start keeping up her conditioning for this race and back in at the claiming level.

#5 QUEEN EKATI has recorded some of the higher speed figures and could be given an upgrade from the April 20^th race impacted by the WEATHER where the higher winds made it tough to make up ground and the pacesetters carried 1-2 around the track finishing together and clear of the others at the wire. The distance is not her ideal though is capable around two turns against the right company and with the right trip.  

#2 ANCIENT MAN has shown more run than perhaps the running lines and speed figures give credit noting he was placed ambitiously in those races for his ability. One of those efforts, the April 13^th race earned a strong 70 OptixFIG and run making a MOVE against (X_BIAS) the track profile. That figure stacks right up with rival, #3 KING ZION, one that has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though is very tough to trust given the career race record. The class drop for ANCIENT MAN gave him a longshot look last week, though the trip and race dynamic eliminated him right from the TROUBLES+ start. The change in class could present the edge as the “new face” from the others in this group that have come up short at today’s $6250k claiming level and should offer some value as well.

In addition to King Zion, Perez will also be represented by #6 JACKPOT BOY one that is lighter number wise and must improve though should benefit from the added ground (STRETCH) returning to a route from the sprint last week. 

This race could change significantly based on the players in this race, primarily #3 TAHOE RUN (and #5 LARRY THE POET to a lesser degree) based on the result (or a scratch) from the June 11^th maiden race where they are also entered -- UPDATE: both scratched from that race to run here.

Removing them from this field, the task will be easier for #6 GONE AGAIN one that will be tested for stamina at today’s route distance. #4 ICE AXE is proven on stamina and should offer value of that pair, recording similar speed figures in the route races. Perez will also send out #2 RUSSIAN STANDARD, one that is currently lighter than the other two mentioned, though has shown progression in his races this season and could easily take another step forward and should also handle the added ground. 

The presence of #4 TEMPER TANTRUM in this race should make things tougher trip/pace wise on #3 SAILING SOLO, one that when able to run to his advertising can be a tough customer on the lead. The presence of Temper Tantrum in this race could also assist his stablemate, #5 PROTONIC POWER, one that fits at this level and in with today’s dynamic shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Quad II/IV Square. That edge could give him the slight advantage over his quality rivals, #1 SILVER QUARTERS and #5 CAPTIVATING MOON sharing a similar RunStyle, Plot position and shape. 

The pace should make the race showing a Plot that despite the “Yellow” PlotFit is consistent from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. The “Fire” Contention and higher 50 SpeedRate should upgrade the Squares – horses with finishing ability. #6 LATIN CASINO should have the pace advantage as the Quad I Square, compared to the “Circles” of #2 MISTER KELLY, #4 MALPAIS and #5 MEDAL OF FACT though must still overcome that pace pressure to win.

#1 LAKE MILLS should be stalking (Quad II Square) looking to take advantage with first run though must avoid getting caught up in the early pace from the rail as he is one of the runners positioned over the ParLine and contributing to the higher SpeedRate.

By contrast, #3 ROGER MCQUEEN will have to avoid getting too detached from the others early shown with separation from that first flight in Quad IV. That position will be up to the control of rider Uriel Lopez (still looking for the first win this meet – at the time of this analysis) though the race shape and current form (B OptixGRADE) put him right into a contender role today. 

#4 IMPERIAL MOMENT fits the conditions for this race as he shows up in his first start of the season. He will give up recency, though could hold a subtle pace advantage as a horse that has been effective on the lead and has that run style edge over the others in this field. #3 HATCHET CREEK has also shown some stalking speed in the past and will find some subtle class relief off his races here this season. Some further intent for this race could be in play as he comes back with the 42-day freshening and picking up Tavares.

#5 GOOD ONE has shown early speed in the past, though has been effective in that role on the turf. He will show up to make his Hawthorne debut and for Clay, a barn that has sent out live runners and many with this trainer change on this circuit. His form could present a move forward in the third start of the cycle and from a subtle trip on May 20^th at Prairie Meadows. The surface switch is in play for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE landing in this race (should the connections take this event over a turf race on Wednesday) on the main-e track. His speed figures and current form fit in with today’s group and one that could be overlooked off the recent finishing positions looking for that belated win. 

#1 PERUVIAN LUCKY turned in an honest effort back on May 20^th at Pimlico finishing in a blanket for the deeper minors, though was not quite to the level of his competition that day. She should move up on this circuit and fit right in with today’s group.

The pace should be contentious (Sun) with many in Quad I and sharing the EP RunStyle shown on OptixRPM. #7 ON KP is part of the that first flight (Quad I above ParLine) and one that will shift back to this circuit and back to the turf where he has buried form over this course and allowance from last season that put him in the mix and could be overlooked with those races buried in his past performances.

Form cycle are the main knocks on #2 HURTS SO BAD and #5 FAITHFUL RULER both coming back for this race off wins and recording new tops – pairing those effort and holding form makes them competitive though is still something to weight as they could get wagering attention off the recent numbers here. #6 BALADINE is overall softer than today’s main rivals, though does present some upside as a lightly raced type, especially on the turf and with the subtle trip on May 31^st. 

#7 GETTIN DOWN should be a heavy favorite in this race for the connections and on the class drop. Those factors move her up in today’s race shape and shown as a dominant Quad I Square where she should lack excuse in that role and hold the edge over Circle, #4 SHORT STRAW.

#2 TWICK OR TWEAT also finds class relief, though not as big of a drop as GETTIN DOWN, though overall a right move for this filly looking to place here where she can compete. #1 VELVET SEASON comes out of the May 31^st common race when making her first start on this circuit. She should benefit from the local experience and even some intent with the addition of blinkers. As far as trip/effort, she should move forward noting the slow start (SLOG), WIDE trip and not (NO_PUSH) asked for her best on the day. #5 EVIE JEAN also returning from that event is back at the right level for her to compete, though is tougher to trust on the win end given the overall 0-21 race record including many starts at today’s maiden condition.

The new face, #8 CUPID’S HOPE is the lone first time starter and should be plenty fit for this race and appears to have some run reading between the lines in the published work tab. The barn is capable with debuting runners, jockey Uriel Lopez has at the time of this analysis has yet to win this meet and perhaps the barn is assisting this one with a live runner.