Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is an evenly matched group with the field capable on their best day and not far off each other number wise. #1 BEEALEA could present value in this field and upside for the connections in this spot and since the claim. Going back to the April 27^th race at this level, he recorded a B- OptixGRADE, a GRADE consistent with the current form at the level from both #5 DANVILLE and #6 GLOBAL EMPIRE, logical types in this race. BEEALEA earned that B- GRADE and 82 OptixFIG with a WIDE trip and in a peak portion of his form cycle – second off with the stretch out. Claimed that day he stepped up in class for both the May 14^th and June 1^st races with the higher purse and breaking slow (SLOG) in both was against the race flow (Very Slow/S) in both starts. The pace should be honest today with #2 TROY OUNCE and #3 ASTI SKY.

The trip and race flow could also suit #4 JEFF THE LION looking for that first win since the series of layoff lines. He has held his form this year around two turns and stayed on as the best of the speed/BOS, back on April 20^th earning a B- OptixGRADE under similar Optional Claiming conditions. 

Looking at the Standard (current form) OptixPLOT, there is not much between morning line favorite, #2 TRIPLE CHROME and #1 SPEEDY G, upgraded as value/longshot as the longer of the two runners. SPEEDY G will require a trip from the rail as well as a top effort, though with that “hidden form” also comes intent as the connections scratched from a route race at the level last Sunday, June 4^th, to run here instead as well as picking up a live rider change to Santiago.  

Going back to the Plot and assessing the early speed, #6 IRONMAN RICHIE has the edge both on early (furthest left) and second call (higher on y-axis) above the ParLine from rival, #3 BOURBON TEDDY. There is a gap from that pair to #4 TEA AFTER BALLET and #5 DEORA STORE sitting in Quad IV and trip comes into play with that scenario combined with today’s shorter 5.5f distance. 

In terms of class, speed #9 NO KAY NEVER is logical as the favorite and validated in this field looking at the OptixPLOT in that role. She projects to be favored for those reason and the horse to beat. Ward will also send out #6 STARS ON FIRE, one that has course experience breaking her maiden here last November, though has not been seen since and overall must improve as she returns to take on winners and older in her sophomore debut.

#4 BALI BABY is tough to ignore at the projected longer odds showing up as a Square both on Standard and Surface/Distance. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group.

The creative idea comes from the Cristel runners starting with #3 CRYSTAL SNOW. She has some buried form at the maiden level and held a hidden class edge from the maiden claiming events at Turfway Park with the higher purse giving her an edge on April 20^th. She was dominant, B+ OptixGRADE over the group that day and the connections kept her protected on May 14^th in allowance company, the first start against winners. She was compromised with the trip/TACTIC- and did not have a clear chance (NO_PUSH) to run her race and did a lot of running (GALLOP+) after the wire. Stablemate #10 JUDY’S MS OFFICER has a class test stepping up from the claiming races to today’s allowance level, though has held form this season (Standard Plot) and as far as the surface switch she has given the physical indication she can hand TURF.

Looking at OptixPLOT, the contention (Fire) looks heave and honest (50 SpeedRate) with #1 FROST WARRIOR, #2 STAR OF TOMORROW and #5 AWESOME SUNDAY together in Quad I above the ParLine. #3 OPALINE is also projected to show early speed noting the position in Quad III as well as the recent TROUBLE_S that had her RUSH to the lead. STAR OF TOMMOROW is the Square of the trio and upgraded from that perspective, though must overcome the pace complexion and value is required as Mason runners have come up short this meet without excuse even when logical. AWESOME SUNDAY has the considerable class edge with the massive drop to run at this level. Number wise, her OptixFIG from the debut win last December and return figure on April 2^nd stand out in this field.

At double digit odds, #1 FROST WARRIOR is worth getting creative with. She was competitive at this level earlier this season with both races back in March earning B- OptixGRADE and OptixFIG that fit today’s OFR. She has higher figures that stack up above par for her turf races and some buried form and positive form cycle pattern coming into that race that could see her fly under the radar and back to a top effort.

The pace should set up for the seasoned mares #4 SEQUAYA and #6 BELLS OF JOY ones that require all the help they can get, and value to play, as they look for the belated win to clear the condition and should find it here as well as fit on their best day.

#2 DRAGONERA ships in for trainer Eoin Harty and appears (OptixPLOT) to hold a strong edge in this field. She fits with the pace advantage shown as Quad I Square above the ParLine and OptixFIG shown in the Past 3 Runlines above today’s OFR.

Number wise #1 COTTON CANDY ANNIE has run some of the higher figures from the group including the number 16-days ago picking up the HS Indy win. While those numbers stack up with this group, she (along with #6 DESSERT FIRST) are the most seasoned in the field and has not shown much upside, something that is present with the others in this group.

#3 TAR HEEL GIRL debuted on the turf during the contentious Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park with some TROUBLE in her races and excuses given the trips and level of competition. Those efforts along with the circuit switch presented the edge on April 23^rd which she took advantage of despite running on the main track to break her maiden. A case can be made we have yet to see the best of her on the turf and that could come this afternoon.

Block Stablemate #5 LORRAINE’S LEGACY will take on winners after picking up the maiden score on March 12^th finally getting the job done as the favorite, a role she had in each start going back to her October debut. To her credit, she improved number wise with each start and requires another move forward in with this group. The surface will also be a change noting the intent to run at the N1X allowance level back on May 7^th though as a vet scratch that day was unable to compete – though to be fair turf racing was not available to her at that time.

Longshot #4 SUNSET PAYNTER caught the eye breaking her maiden on debut back in January at Golden Gate Fields and was not alone in those impressive visuals as she was privately purchased from that race. She spent the rest of the season at Oaklawn Park in spots that were both contentious (BTL on March 25^th) and perhaps not ideal as far as class and distance as well. The conditions of today’s race are another change for her to step up on as she makes her turf debut and will race back around two-turns. Some positive intent could be in play given the those first two starts, landing on this circuit and picking up a top rider in Emigh for this race.

Value is the concern here with #8 PASTA SALAD RHONDA as she has the documented gate (SLOG) issues and must step up given the others in this field and her form into this race. Class wise she will find relief back on this circuit and exiting some competitive races at the Fair Grounds with form holding up from those races both January 22nd (common race with Dessert First) and March 25th. 

#6 MUD ISLAND appears to hold a pace advantage and value in this field, a combination that is always tough to dismiss. Rivals #4 KING TITO and #5 D’FEVER have shown legit early speed to keep the pace honest going back in their past performances and would change the complexion of the race should they take that tactical approach today.

#2 RESTORING HOPE projects to be favored though does not appear to offer much value in that role. As an individual he is capable and fits in this race; in terms of trip he will be looking to take first run (Quad III Square) on the pacesetters including Mud Island (Circle) and looking for the jump on the Quad IV Square rivals.

With buried form, #3 BORN AGAIN GEORGE was given the push on May 11^th and did everything right (BTL) if willing to excuse the stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and losing the rider while going on to cross the wire first. He validated that effort coming back on May 11^th to CLOSE and just come up short recording a B OptixGRADE in the place finish. By contrast, #7 TAPIT SAM returns from that May 21^st event recording the B- OptixGRADE, a touch below BORN AGAIN GEORGE and could win up being shorter of the two on the board. 

Followers of Club Hawthorne Live will recall the March 31^st Friday show when #8 EVEN THE WIND was given the push coming off a sneaky BTL debut. It was noted by Jim his IL-bred eligibility and connections that could see him run on this circuit. As projected he landed here on May 4^th and showed run following the TROUBLES+ start and visuals that should see him move up on today’s TURF surface.

The Block/Goldfine connections will also be represented by #9 COOL AND COLLECTED for his debut with intent for today’s surface/distance noting they were entered and unable to draw into a similar race back on May 21^st. Centeno was named on Cool and Collected that day though will remain on #2 MINNESOTA MOON coming off the recent place finish. While that effort might look appealing “on paper” it was less “gamely” lacking/NO_FINISH after setting a moderate pace – a similar race and outcome without excuse going back to April 13^th. He is an easy favorite to try and take on should he fall into that favorite role today.

In addition to Minnesota Moon, Lothenbach Stables will be represented by #4 GOING AT IT returning to make his second start. He is deserving of a follow and upside from the debut (RANK, WIDE) where the experience should benefit this individual. Despite finishing off the board his 71 OptixFIG has him right in line with many of the “logical” types in this field and at the same time perhaps the most upside.  

Not quite a second time starter, though similar considerations given to #5 ALL CHOKED UP as he makes his second start this season and back from the long layoff. Both of his starts as a juvenile in 2021 can be excuses and the May 21^st effort given a “flow upgrade” setting a Very Fast early pace, a pace that benefit the Block trained, Out of Deductions to score by open lengths earning a 98 OptixFIG.