Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 READTHETRANSCRIPT has buried form returning to this circuit to move up under today’s conditions. The March 2^nd N3 claiming race at Gulfstream Park has been a productive event with two next out winners (both with improving OptixFIG) -- and even the race winner, Rave On, returning to finish third on 3/24 stepping up against open claiming company holding their form and speed figure. READTHETRANSCRIPT is shown as a Quad IV Square in this race, though has been able to show more tactical speed sprinting and under regular rider, Arrieta, could show that tactical speed here. 

Morning line favorite #3 OCEAN HONEY is capable in this spot, however as the projected favorite does not hold any edge (slower on speed figures for example) in this field to support at the shorter price. #7 ROARINGLIKETHUNDER has buried form with OptixFIG in OFR has highlighted on Past 3 Runlines shown on OptixPLOT. In addition, she could present a move forward as she makes her second start of the form cycle and wheeling back from the layoff return two weeks ago where she did not handle the inside (NO_HANDLE) trip and capable of improvement and timing where today could be flying under the radar. 

The Castro barn will also return with #4 FROST WARRIOR in a third start of the meet and into a race shape (Quad II Square) that could flatter her RunStyle and trip under today’s dynamic.

#3 RESTORING HOPE did not appear race ready (OUCHY) returning from the layoff here closing out 2022 on December 30^th. Haran returning under similar conditions with a steady series of works and already some productive runners this season could have this horse back to form and at the level where he is more than capable of winning turning in a top effort. #7 HATCHET CREEK could also step up in this spot (also ran in the 12/30 common race with Restoring Hope) where he appeared to require (PREP) coming off the layoff on March 16^th, just two weeks ago. His trip was less than ideal (TROUBLE-) though did not appear to impact as far as trip in overall result noting the horse looked short on the day with that playing a greater role in the outcome.  

#6 GITA’S LAD makes sense as the morning line favorite and could present (OptixPLOT) as the controlling speed with a potential pace advantage. With that said, they will give up some recency coming back today from the 102-day layoff. #2 FIRST MASAMUNE (also Quad I runner – upgraded Surface/Distance Square) could look to take advantage (and offer value with under the radar form) with the edge in recency and intent making their second start back off the layoff and project to move forward with the added (STRETCH?) ground. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #2 ARDIS holds a pace advantage (Quad I Square) over the morning line favorite, #6 ICY RIVER and could offer value if that morning line holds. The placement for ARDIS could also suggest positive intent for the connections as she shows up on this circuit and in this spot racing protected under today’s conditions. Number wise, #1 JULIAISON is lighter, however turned in an honest effort (C+ OptixGRADE/GALLOP+) here under similar conditions back on December 10^th and again referencing OptixPLOT has the strongest late kick (Large Square) in this field. 

#5 SILVER MOON ROAD is logical and looking at OptixPLOT figures the one to run down (Quad I Square) on the front end. A top effort and even returning to one of his stronger/faster races could be required with the “Sun” Contention and returning from the March 9^th common race and BLANKET finish with #5 PERFECT WAGER and #6 DARK HEDGES. That pace scenario (and returning to a top effort) could benefit #1 TRY TRY AGAIN in this spot and wheeling back from the March 9^th event in this second start off the layoff and with a positive rider and Plot position change for this race. 

Watkins has sent out live runner to start the meet and that gives a longer look to #3 WILD FOX returning here for the barn and in the first start of the season. In terms of class, he is tested at this starter allowance level, though going back to his layoff return last April sprinting 5.5f at this condition, he finished a solid second. He also ran at the level here on October 14^th with a subtle trip (carried WIDE) and made up ground (CLOSE) turning in a more competitive effort than the run line and 7^th place result may indicate. 

Tough to get too creative in this race with #3 WILDWOOD DREAMER logical returning with their early speed (Quad I) along with the fitness/form in this second start off the bench as well as speed and class on par for this level. #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN also fits on speed and class for this level. She is giving up some recency and trip (Quad IV Square) required from off the pace.

Rivelli returns with a pair and a strong hand in this race. Loveberry is also returning to Hawthorne and reuniting with #7 GOLDEN HORNET, one of those Rivelli runners. That rider change and timing could suggest intent and a move forward as they make their second start of the meet. Going back to the March 12^th race the timing was less than ideal for GOLDEN HORNET running back on short rest (15-days) and from a strong effort (B- OptixGRADE/96 OptixFIG) at Oaklawn Park setting a contested (DUEL) pace. The inside trip, tactics and shorter distance did not GOLDEN HORNET no favors playing a role in the show finish they will look to improve on today. As far as #2 TAPE TO TAPE there is not much to knock off their current form and form since picked up by Rivelli with a repeat of their current form and efforts stacking right up in this group.  

The “Fire” Contention and 43 SpeedRate should also be respected here and in terms of trip #1 PALACE KITTEN could look to take advantage and offer a bit more value than #5 WALKER’S WIN, one that might require a race coming off the layoff for Becker. #4 W W CANDY also gives up some recency and in terms of class is one that requires a top effort (and some racing luck) to win though an honest enough (lack of Red and BTL efforts shown in the Past 3 Runlines) racehorse to give that account of himself here. 

The analysis starts with the group returning from the common race here on March 19^th with the edge on recency over the others returning from layoffs. Going back to that event 11-days ago, #7 MAYSTART was favored and had her race compromised at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) before running on late. #1 MY LADY SLEW showed early speed and the fitness (and inside draw) could be on her side though could find pace pressure (Sun Contention) with the others in this field. #9 WITCHING recorded a new top 73 OptixFIG making that layoff return last month and will be required to hold her form and possibly even need a move forward for a top spot today. 

Looking at the layoff return runners, #2 RATTRAPANTE has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and class drop out of town that could present the returning from the layoff to form here. #6 BETHY is another that has some buried form and upgraded on OptixPLOT with a stalking trip as a Square positioned in the center of the Plot.

The conditions/dynamic of this race suit #3 RYE HUMOR in this spot with buried form, buried sprint form as they cut back in distance for this event. #4 NEWS BOX shares a similar run style, though one that will take on a more "obvious" role of the two here based on recent form and finishing positions this season. 

As far as the early pace, #7 WESLEYAN could hold an edge though they project to take pace pressure in that role and still require a top effort to win. 

#1 TRAPPE VALLEY is the wide card factor returning from the layoff. They will find class relief returning from the break with top connections behind them where a top effort has them right back into the mix. 

The 4th place run from #4 REAUX BINA on 3/16 can be upgraded given the WIDE trip and B- OptixGRADE. She has buried form this season including the route races against open company leading up the race earlier this month. 

#5 TIZ A STRATEGY comes into this race with progressive (improving OptixGRADE) form with each start this season. This will be here route debut, though there was intent to stretch her out earlier this meet when scratched from a route race in preference for the 3/17 race. 

Progressive form has also been shown from both #7 SHE BE SHEEHAN and #8 DRIVING, two runners suited to this statebred maiden claiming level and making their route debut here.

The class change will be in play for #6 PAT'S GIRL exiting the Special Weight events, though those race pars/OFR were light this season. #3 BRADLEY PINK actually exits a higher rated race OFR of the two and should move up back in at the maiden claiming level though does require a big step up with the edge being held by others in this field. 

#2 SHESTHEBIGGAME returns from the layoff into a reasonable spot to compete and look to clear the maiden level. She showed a competitive run (B- OptixGRADE) under similar conditions last September, a race run during her juvenile campaign and reasonable to project improvement coming back here as a three-year-old. 

#3 THORN CROWN has not been much to this point making the class drop a logical move for her just looking for that right spot and group to run against. 

#6 DIAMONDS R FOREVER could also present a move forward as she wheels right back for this second start. She can be upgraded from the 3/16 effort racing WIDE up close to a Fast early pace before losing ground. 

As far as #7 STREET PAINTER she will run against open company today though more of a lateral class move exiting the Special Weight event back in February, a race she ran just evenly in and would require more to win here. The improvement is also required for #8 LUNCH LADY, one that appeared most logical on March 2nd, though just ran evenly (C+ OptixGRADE) throughout. 

#1 ELI'S GIRL was compromised by the rider TACTIC- on February 26th and improvement back to a top effort is projected off that trip and from the 32-day freshening. 

#8 FLAG TO FLAG could jump up in this spot as a lightly raced type and making her route debut. She showed speed (FTQ) returning off the layoff in January and the TROUBLE on February 20th kept her from establishing position and showing her best on the day. 

#6 ELEGANCE N TONIC also looks to return to top form off the 53-day freshening. The timing wheeling back on February 5th seemed to play against her and was not asked/NO_PUSH on the day, keeping that in mind with the run line and finishing position. 

As far as "value" #2 ABBY THE BULL DAWG could go off at longer odds than #7 LADY ENVOY despite holding higher figures and similar form coming back to the N2 level. 

Milligan will send out a pair in this race that are not without a chance. #7 BLUE COWGIRL will return to a route with that two turn foundation and fitness from March 5th. Going back to February 24th, she recorded a BTL effort in the 5th place finish, recent finishing positions that should have her overlooked. #3 WILD BIZNESS is a legit longshot in this race, though has shown run in spots and form from both this season and last to suggest she has not shown her best and that could appear here repeating a similar form cycle (two sprints to route) as the intention in the past. 

#5 SWEET TRUFFLES is fairly common though will find arguably the softest spot in her career thus far and should have no excuse on the "class" front. 

#8 MAY DISCO is one the statebred runners in this field and that group all around tested against open. With that said, MAY DISCO has presented as a runner that looks to want a route of ground and will have that change here for the first time as a positive change. 

#3 GHOSTLY GIRL ships into make her local debut where just holding her form has her competitive at this level and in with today's group. She has found the right group to break her maiden back on February 4th and came back up in class on short rest just weeks later to take on winners (2/17) for the first time. She has been given the time to recover and some positive intent taking this spot where she can continue to race protected. 

The distance and class change was just what was needed for #6 POUT returning to the races and winning off the bench for Zito, where she can gain make an an impact here with her tactical speed. The pace scenario requires some contention up front for #7 I FEEL THE NEED to get her trip from off the pace. She required the change in class on March 4th and moved up with a competitive (B- OptixGRADE) effort on the day. 

Both #1 ECHO AGAIN and #6 TYLER'S TRIBE return in this allowance race with something to prove and validate their juvenile form, something that has been in question returning this year. Both horses have flashed ability at times, though have the challenges they are looking to put behind them this afternoon. As far as ECHO AGAIN, they have the benefit of route experience and his stamina has been called into question and could be some positive intent and confidence to return to two-turns after getting eased up (and reported to have been pulled up out of caution and come out of the G3 Lecomte well) last out. 

#5 EL TOMATE showed a lot of run (TWO_MOVES) breaking his maiden on debut and was placed in deep water running in the Southwest (G3) in just his second start, while also making his first start against winners one at the route distance. He validated himself coming back in March 9th allowance, a race at a higher race barn and one that should see him hold his form from here. #3 B MINOR also returning from that March 9th race, has his own challenges that day coming off the layoff and encountering a rough trip with TRAFFIC TROUBLE that could project a move forward here. 

McPeek will also return with #4 MAYFIELD STRONG coming back from the layoff and for his sophomore debut. That timing is noted as a runner that is "slower" coming into this race, though could present upside and improvement with age/maturity from his juvenile campaign.

Looking to take advantage of any weaknesses from others in this field, #7 WESTERN GHENT also looking to find his top form could find it here with the foundation this season and receiving the much needed class relief. #2 GIROOVIN returns here and back at the level from December 17th with an effort on the day suggested class weakness (DROP?) and one that could get attention/underlay here. 

#3 ALLO ENRY should move up naturally exiting the allowance races to run in this claiming event off his current form. The drop is less concerning as it it for #7 GOODNIGHT ARCHIE from his races this season though some upside off the X_WIDE trip (3/11) can be projected. Both #8 VYING EDGE and #9 CAMPISI also return from that March 11th common race and back in for the claiming tag where they were effective breaking their maiden earlier this season.

Improvement has been showing on #5 TRAFFIC CONTROL this season and coming into this race for the third start off the layoff. By contrast the buried form from #1A RISKY SITUATION/#1WARNING LABEL and #6 MR. COUGAR could have them in the right spot to run back to a top effort and overlooked in this full field. 

Until something changes, I’m going to give early speed the advantage in my handicapping. Therefore, I’m going to go with 5-IRONMAN RICHIE. He just scored an easy victory in a non-winners of two. He’s meeting better under this condition but he usually breaks alertly and apprentice rider Manny Giles has been able to help runners take full advantage of their early zip. 3-SHAKLEFORD STRONG finished second as the odds-on favorite in his local debut. That was the first time he ran at such a low level. Chances are that he can improve in his second trip over this track. However, he doesn’t always break alertly and failing to get to the front end early could cost him the race. 2-WHERE’D THE DAY GO makes his first start of the year but he had a couple of good drills for a barn that brings them back ready. 

Back to the speed premise. 6-G MONEY LIV ships in from Oaklawn where she has been displaying good speed but running out of gas late. However, for her first start here, she’ll be meeting somewhat easier rivals while cutting back in distance on a track that has been speed-favoring. They’ll have to catch her. 3-OCEAN HONEY is likely to be favored and might deserve it. She also owns good speed. She finished second at a higher level in her first start here. Could be awfully tough with the drop to her lowest claiming price ever. 1-BELLS OF JOY probably isn’t a threat to win this but she can come on late and might grab the show dough.

1-WILDWOOD SECRET has never been close at the finish on this track but he’s never been in this easy.  Speedy gelding drew the rail and gets the top jock in his irons. Might never look back. The last win by 5-IRISH TUFF came in wire-to-wire fashion but it’s his ability to come on late that could give him the edge today. Many in here have speed but little staying power. This gelding will come on late. He finished in the money in five of his seven starts at the distance. Might earn his first win at five and a half. 4-WINGING WAYS also enjoys good early foot. Like that his connections brought him back as a waiver claim in his first start after a lengthy layoff, probably thinking that he needed a race but didn’t want him claimed. He finished third in that last race. Could do even better this time. Not sure what to make of 3-RESTORING HOPE. He looked awful versus similar in his final start of 2022 and his recent drills haven’t impressed but he does have some back class.

6-GITA’S LAD finished off his 2022 campaign with a wire-to-wire victory and has a good chance of starting off his 2023 campaign in the same manner. In a race with seemingly no other speed (though you can expect at least one other to be sent), this gelding should be able to just coast on the front end. 3-JEFF THE LION showed little in last, his first race back after a 13-month layoff, but he’s been training well since that November race and he’ll be taking on easier company in this one. The last time he raced at a similar level he won by seven. Can’t be taken lightly. 2-FIRST MASAMUNE could be the one that challenges top choice for the early lead. Ignore his first race of the meet, he’s not a sprinter, but he stretches to a far better distance for him today. He has shown pretty good route speed in the past. Might be able to do it again.

There could be an interesting front-end battle between 6-ICY RIVER and 2-ARDIS. Icy River wired the field in last, beating allowance company, in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. Ardis has been racing in California. She was claimed from her last two races but ends up in an entirely different barn for her local debut. She’s going to be ultra-tough when she heads to Indiana to face state breds but she’s also sure to be a top contender in this race. 1-JULIASON does look like the best closer in the field. Not she she’s capable of catching the top pair but she will be coming on strong late and she just might be a factor late in the lane. 

5-SILVER MOON ROAD seeks to add another win to his already-impressive total. He won his final six starts of 2022, had his streak snapped when racing on synthetic at Turfway earlier this year, and then invaded here to post a popular victory. He led every step of the way in his local debut, as he usually does. Meets many of the same foes and several in here own good speed, but they will have to beat him at his own game. 6-PERFECT WAGER might have the best chance of catching top pick. He did finish third, a half length behind that rival in that last race, but he was flying late. The longer distance of this race could boost his chances, especially if a contested pace develops. 7-DARK HEDGES tracked top pick every inch of the way in last but could never get past. Unfortunately, he’s probably going to have the same kind of trip today. Needs a little luck.

3-WILDWOOD DREAMER certainly looks like the one to beat. She’s back to facing the ladies after a narrow loss in allowance company and a daylight maiden victory; both against the boys. She seems to hold a slight speed edge though can see her having to fight for the lead. She might be able to last in her second start of the year. 6-RAINY MOUNTAIN might pass them all by midstretch. After a dull debut race she’s been getting better with every passing start. If this wasn’t her first start of the year, or if this race was at six furlongs, she would be my pick. 4-FROSTED ÉCLAIR is another that has gotten better with experience. She came from off the pace for the first time in last and earned her maiden victory. Carries seven pounds less with her switch to apprentice Giles, the current leading rider, which could only bolster her chances.

Stakes-quality race. Have to go with morning-line favorite 2-TAPE TO TAPE but he isn’t necessarily a strong selection. He did win his last four starts and he won his only local dirt race but this field appears full of many front runners as talented as he. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to put them all away. The two runners from the Becker barn, 5-WALKER’S WIN and 6-W W SCOUTS HONOR also possess plenty of speed but both have also shown the capacity to run well when coming from off the pace. 7-GOLDEN HORNET, stablemate of top choice, loves the front end but did show in last that he’s capable of coming on late.

I’m still expecting at last some speed bias, though maybe not as pronounced as was evident the last couple weeks. So I’ll take a shot with 1-MY LADY SLEW. She displayed good speed at the distance in last, her first start of the year. She tired badly in that race but it should have set her up perfectly for this one. She might be in too tough but most other members of this field are coming off lengthy layoffs. Might sneak to the lead and never look back. 2-RATTRAPANTE drops to make her local debut and her first start for this barn. She might be even quicker than top choice. However, she’s racing for the first time since September and her works haven’t impressed. She might win this by daylight but she might not run a step. We’ll see. 9-WITCHING is always a threat. She’s had nine races and finished in the money eight times. She finished second in last at this level after having only one published drill since her last previous race in September. She could be very tough.

3-SHACKLEFORD STRONG came over from Oaklawn prior to the last start and took quite a bit of action in that race. He didn't race poorly by any means as he chased the entire way on a day that speed held well. With warmer temps, expect the track to even out as he should be very tough in here. 2-WHERE'D THE DAY GO makes his first start of the year for Berndt as he comes in off a couple of works. He is likely best suited for the grass but merits a look for a barn that wins at a good rate. 5-IRONMAN RICHIE makes a quick return off a solid victory. He was left to chase the early pace in his last but took over in the lane and finished strongly. He won't be too far out of it at any point and could be ready to win right back.

With the hopes that the track plays evenly, I'm giving the nod to 5-EVIE at a bit of a price. She made her first start of the meet a couple of weeks back and was one to run on in the lane. With a couple with speed in here, things could be contested early as she could come running on late. 3-OCEAN HONEY should get a good tracking trip in here as the Klopp barn has done well with everything they have sent over. She ran a good race against better in her last and is likely to get first run on the closers in here. 1-BELLS OF JOY isn't one that wins often but she does show the ability to run on in the lane. She's 9/16 ITM at Hawthorne and will also benefit if the track evens out a bit.

Looking to the back class of 3-RESTORING HOPE as he makes his first start out of the meet. He will need some pace to chase but is likely to find it in here as he has three works leading toward the return. With a couple who benefitted from a speed favoring strip last out coming back, they may wing it again and come back to the field. 4-WINGING WAYS is one with speed who may have some company as well. He's another with some back class who has run well at the distance. Expect him to take some action in this spot. 1-WILDWOOD SECRET also has tactical speed as he makes his first start of the meet. He has a couple of works toward the return but the concern is the drop to well below the level of the claim.

Good, competitive bunch here as there's not a ton of pace in this race. Thinking Gita's Lad controls things on the lead but hoping 3-JEFF THE LION can get the stalking trip and look to run on in the lane. Everything from this barn is working well toward their return and Jeff the Lion has had success over the track. This will be only his second start in 18 months but the barn looks to have him ready. 6-GITA'S LAD has been very good at Hawthorne as 9 of his 10 career victories have come over this strip. He figures to clear from the outside and look to control the pace but there won't be much value from him either. 2-FIRST MASAMUNE has to hope things are contested upfront as he figures to settle and close late. The distance suits, he likes the track, and has a race under his belt. There's a chance he could run by them all late.

In past years it would seem odd to see horses here from Southern California but we have seen it more and more over the past couple of seasons. 2-ARDIS is one of those who comes in off the claim at Santa Anita. She qualifies for this race off his start two back and has tactical speed. Races at Santa Anita have translated well in the past for those horses handling this Hawthorne strip. Let's see what this one shows us today. 6-ICY RIVER was a winner in the slop here against Allowance company earlier in the meet. That was a day where speed was good and she took full advantage. Expect to see her winging it from the outside today. 4-LICHITA is another with speed as she comes off a strong win at Oaklawn last out. She was coming off the layoff into that spot and taking a drop but was pushed every step of the way and never gave in. Let's see if she challenges for the front end once again today.

Facing the girls may be the difference for 3-WILDWOOD DREAMER as she has taken on the boys in her last two starts. She broke her maiden in the final start of the fall meet and almost defeated the boys when facing Allowance runners to open this meet. She has speed to burn but doesn't need the top to win. Let's see how things unfold in this spot today. 6-RAINY MOUNTAIN makes her first start of the meet but has put together and nice pattern of drills leading into this race. She won't be too far back at any point and figures to be right there at the if there's a speed duel upfront early. 4-FROSTED ECLAIR comes in off a good win in the slop in her last. She got away a step slowly in that spot before rallying in the lane. Expect her to tuck in just behind the pace in this race and run on in the stretch.

Two in here from the barn of Larry Rivelli as both are in with a big shot. I was expecting a bit more from 7-GOLDEN HORNET last out but it is possible that he didn't take to the slop. There's a lot of pace to his inside in here so let's hope that he settles in the second flight and looks to run on in the lane. 5-WALKER'S WIN likely won't be too far off the early pace but he is very game. He's won both of his Hawthorne starts and is working up a storm toward his return. With the quality of this field, there's a chance he could sneak away at a bit of a price. 2-TAPE TO TAPE is the other Rivelli entrant in here but by no means can be overlooked either. He has speed, likes this track and may be the fastest to the front. 

Had a really tough time with this race as I wasn't sure where I wanted to lane. Ended up on the horse that has had success here as 1-MY LADY SLEW draws the rail. She has speed and although there's others with pace in the race, she figures to make the top and play a game of catch me if you can. Let's see if she can shake loose with the hot riding Giles in the saddle. 9-WITCHING ran well in her last as she rated in the second flight and closed some ground in the lane. She is hoping for a contested pace upfront as an evenly playing track will help her chances for sure. 2-RATTRAPANTE is the question mark as she ships over to Hawthorne to make her first start of the year. She has been away from the races since September but is working well toward her return. She also has some early speed but I don't think she is as quick as My Lady Slew is likely to be from the gate.