Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 CAIRO SUMMER will repeat a winning form cycle pattern coming back to Hawthorne for Sanchez. This pattern of two routes to a sprint was used back on September 23^rd resulting in a win (B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG clearing the N2 claiming level. A similar pattern was used going into the December 31^st race, a result that did not turn out the win, though did show a move forward (making a MOVE) in a trip challenged by the outside post and full field on the day. 

#3 UNCLE NICK with the massive class drop should handle this field and on his best day stands out over this group. With that said, a massive drop can have concerns attached especially when combined with declining form, the pairing here and expected to be a shorter price in this field.

#4 POWERFUL MAN could look to take advantage in this case and with some buried form returning to the route distance and conditions where he left off on December 10^th. In that race he projected to IMPROVE in the second start off the layoff with the added ground and following the trip (and OptixNOTE shown here in the Past 3 Runlines) from November 20^th. #2 CHOCOLATE BUNNY has shown strong early speed and should hold fitness returning to make his second start back off the layoff. This second off pattern has been successful in the past and has been the timing for CHOCOLATE BUNNY to run his peak effort. 

#7 SUPERSTAR DIVA is tough to ignore looking at https://hawthorneracecourse.com/event/optixeq-plots/2023-03-26/ OptixPLOT (and as a potential non-favorite according to the morning line) as a strong Square tracking right off the projected pacesetters (and top two morning line assigned favorites) #5 COOKIN ROSES and #6 FOGGY KITTEN, Quad I Circles. 

This race could go through the Haran pair of #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and #3 NOT VERY GENTLE two runners that fit on par in terms of figures and class. This is class relief for both running in this time restricted claiming event as they return from the layoff.

They will give up recency to #6 WILLING TO SPEED, a runner that should be sitting on a top effort in this second start back off the layoff, a pattern that has presented a move forward for this one in the past. He is expected to show an improved effort today exiting the March 12^th common race, a race that was won on the “lone” lead.

#6 C F V RED NOVA will make their second start of the meet and expected improvement in this spot. Going back to March 9^th, they were making their first start back in 69-days and broke slow (SLOG) not something common for this horse and left with too much to overcome at the shorter 5f distance though to their credit showed run especially late (GALLOP+) and out past the wire. They will wheel right back to a similar level, a level where they fit to compete as a contender with added ground and the fitness on their side. Their ability to show some tactical and positional speed should allow for a stalk and pounce on the Quad I group and the jump on closers (Quad IV runners) #5 MON AMI FUZZIE and #7 SPALDING STROLL. 

Tough to hold a lot of confidence in the group that has come up short at this Special Weight level (or at the maiden claiming level) in the past, though those runners make up the bulk of this field. #7 DASH TO THE CASH has the edge of that set of “experienced” horses and one that has been the most competitive, consistent number wise and holds fitness/conditioning coming into this race as the second start back off the layoff. 

With that noted a “new” face could jump up in this spot. Both first time starters: #2 FLYING CRICKET and #6 SILVER CHILLER look to have some run based on their published works and intent with the timing of those drills and showing up to make their debut in the first part of the meet. #5 MEDAL KING is not a first time starter though can be treated similarly here as this will be just his second start and the debut 578-days ago. As far as the debut back at Arlington Park, MEDAL KING did show some run in spots, something not shown necessarily in the running line and finishing position.

The “Yellow” (caution) PlotFit is noted here as #2 VALIANTLY DISCREET could appear to hold a pace advantage based on the position clear as a Quad I Square. They are listed as the morning line favorite for this race and require that pace advantage as well as a top effort to win at this level. #1 FAITHFUL KING is given a mention as they could end up shorter than the morning line with Vanden Berg sending out live runners, something that has not gone unnoticed from the public. #7 HURTS SO BAD is logical coming back from the B OptixGRADE effort at this level back March 5^th. 

#3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY is the wild card returning to Hawthorne. He has a pair of local starts going back to his juvenile/sophomore season those races here in Illinois followed up with a 441-day layoff before returning last August. His form coming back off the layoff last summer and to the dirt at one turn stack up strongly on par with today’s group and for the level.

#6 LONG TALL WOMAN is a tough horse and has the “horse to beat” qualities coming back to this level looking to pair up wins and extend the current three race win streak. Maintaining form, it will take a top effort from one of the others and a trip to get her beat. #5 AVASARALA had that potential going back to March 5^th, though could have lost her race before it started acting up, fractious in the GATE and giving up her tactical (Quad I advantage) through a passive (TACTIC-) ride. The connections and Centeno coming right back for this race is a positive sign and likely to see her more assertively ridden today looking to play the upset role. 

#1 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT also returns from that March 5^th common race where she was able to SAVED ground and move up late and projects to show a similar run here today. As far as class both #2 ON A TOUR and #3 GOOD MONGOLIA fit at this level, though distance wise at the sprint, is shorter than their ideal. The distance could also be less than ideal for #7 SEAWARD, though she has been able to compete at a similar sprint distance and class level and could be overlooked here to outrun her odds. 

#4 ONASA should present as the controlling (Quad I Square) speed and with a class and conditioning edge exiting the March 9^th race in this second start off the layoff. #3 LUCKY AIN’T ENOUGH earned a follow from the effort back on November 11^th at the Fair Grounds from the trip breaking slow/SLOG and making a WIDE MOVE with visuals to suggest IMPROVE is possible.

#2 GOLD SMOKE showed progression with his return from the layoff here back in December and intention to run at this level, surface and distance noting their were entered in the March 9^th Special Weight event though unable to compete as a vet scratch that day with the issue likely minor as they are right back to the entries and with a published work on March 20^th at Fan Duel. 

4-SMILE AT THE STORM’s sudden awakening was a bit of a surprise in last but it looks like she has regained the early foot she possessed early in her career. Doesn’t seem likely to face much early pressure. Can lead throughout. 3-NIFF might be the only one to challenge the lead. She was overmatched in last, her first start after getting claimed by this barn, but she’s dropping back to the right level for this. 5-IRISH HALO will show some late run but could fall victim to a slow early pace.

2-CHOCOLATE BUNNY could surprise. He looks like the only legitimate speed in the race. He tired badly in his first start of the year but that race could have been the extra conditioning he needed. Speed has been king the last couple of days and his rider has been on fire. Maybe. 3-UNCLE NICK has been in poor form but he’s finally dropping enough to become competitive. 7-MINISTRY OF ART, not a dropper, is in better for than the rest. He finished third in two of his last three; racing here and at Fair Grounds. 

Gotta give 6-FOGGY KITTEN the edge. She finished fourth in her first start of the meet but was beaten by less than a length after a speed duel from the start. The mare that beat her, First Squadron, came back from that race to wire the field on Thursday. This mare is going to have to fend off other front runners again but she could be up to the challenge. 5-COOKIN ROSES is at least as quick as top choice. She showed little in her first start of the meet but she was in against tougher and starting from the outside post. Drops to the right level for this. On the other hand, she won only four of her 45 previous starts. Might be a good place bet. Can lightning strike twice? 2-HOPPESTRY stalked the pace in last and pounced late to get by First Squadron and Foggy Kitten. The pace of this race could set up exactly the same way with two or more vying for the lead. 

Speed has been the name of the game lately so might as well go for the longshot 1-TROY OUNCE.  He ran well to finish third in his local debut. Will probably have to fight for the lead once again but he does seem a bit quicker than the other speed in here and the rail might offer some advantage.

3-NOT VERY GENTLE finished second in his final start of 2022. He gets the hottest jock on the grounds in his irons. Could pick up where he left off. 4-MY GUITAR ran well in his local debut to outlast Troy Ounce in last. He’s another capable of improving in his second local trip. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER, stablemate of Not Very Gentle, has been in poor form for a while but often met better rivals. He hasn’t done well off recent layoffs but he does figure at this level.

Probable speed duel between Cindy’s G Man and The Last Fact could make this an interesting race if the track is playing fairly. But, with the likely cold temps and possibility to precipitation, I believe the track will still be speed favoring. So, I’ll go with 1-CINDY’S G MAN. He ran out of gas late in last, going five furlongs, but was making his first start of the meet with only one recent workout. He should be far tighter for this. 2-THE LAST FACT was a daylight winner going five and a half furlongs but he had a far stronger foundation going into that race. Obviously he’s good enough and fast enough to win this so he would be no surprise. Jockey Chris Emigh rode both the top horses but today rides his wife’s horse 4-TRIPLE CHROME. This gelding owns good speed but he’s not quite as quick as the top pair. But, he will be racing right behind them, ready to scoot by if the top two show any signs of tiring. He’s another that is coming off a win. Can make it two in a row. 6-C F V RED NOVA got off to a less-than-ideal start in his first race for this barn. He still ran ok but was too far back early to really reach contention. But now he has a recent race under his belt and he should have a great pace to run at. Might surprise.

7-DASH TO THE CASH really needs more distance but the five and a half of this race could be sufficient if he can get out of the gate a little quicker. Big closers aren’t making up much ground on this track so he really needs to be closer to the early pace to have a chance. 6-SILVER CHILLER has been training well for his career debut. His works suggest he has good speed and that speed could be needed to win this. 3-INSIDE THE CIRCLE appears to have the best speed of those that have raced, but he is making his 23^rd start as a maiden. Might want to take another look at 9-WESLAN. He was gelded since his last start and has been working forwardly toward his first start of the year, He’ll also be facing Illinois breds for the first time. Hmmm.

2-VALIANTLY DISCREEET came up a bit short in his first start of the meet but that race should have set him up perfectly for this one. He looks like the best of the speed and speed has been winning the majority of races after opening weekend. Don’t know if that’s ready to change. 7-HURTS SO BAD had one of the better races of his career on opening day. He was able to stalk the early pace and then run at the leaders late, finishing second, a half length behind top choice. If that race had been at this distance he probably would have won. But speed has been awfully tough the last couple weeks and he might not be able to make as much headway late. 3-VERRAZANOINTHEKY didn’t run well in his two previous Hawthorne trips, both versus Illinois breds but had a 15-month layoff following his last Illinois race ab came back a runner. He had four straight second-place finishes in Florida upon his return to racing. Forget his last. That race was on turf and possibly his worst two races ever were on the lawn. Looks ready to go.

6-LONG TALL WOMAN doesn’t win by much but she did win her last three and seven of her 17 races, along with eight other finishes in the money. She beat many of these rivals in their last start and only one of the newcomers seems likely to offer a challenge. 3-GOOD MONGOLIA might prove to be tough. She hasn’t shown much in previous starts at this distance but she does own good natural speed and speed in something lacking in most of her rivals in here. 1-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT finished fourth behind top choice in last but she came from 10^th place to do it and lost by less than two lengths. She has displayed better speed in the past so she could still be effective on a speed-favoring track.

Going to take a chance with 3-LUCKY AIN’T ENOUGH. He ran well in his career debut in Iowa last year but got nailed at the start in his second start. He still ran competitively, however. Going to ignore his last start at Fair Grounds. That race was just too tough. But he posted some blistering works in preparation for the 2023 debut. Might be poised to surprise. 4-ONASA just missed after leading most of the way in his local debut. He had a couple decent races in Kentucky last year. That last race could have put the edge on his conditioning. Might never look back. 7-RUSSIAN HAMMER is another capable of the upset. He tired in his first start of the meet but was stretched out for that start off sparse drills. Turns back in distance for this. Could come flying late.

Not a ton of pace in this spot to open the day as 4-SMILE AT THE STORM has the potential to wire this field. She battled the pace in her last and ran on late. Centeno is riding well and should be able to control things in here. 5-IRISH HALO rated and ran on last in that same race. The added 16th should  benefit her as she could close into the gimmicks underneath. 3-NIFF seems to be the other with potential to show speed. She tried tougher without success in her first start off the claim and may improve with the drop back down in class.

The fitness edge in here goes to 7-MINISTRY OF ART as he ran a decent race at this level and distance last out. He has tactical speed and with a couple to show some early speed it should allow for him to tuck in behind and run on in the lane. 3-UNCLE NICK is one of those with early speed as he makes his second start of the meet. His last start was a race where numerous horses set insane early fractions but that was also while facing much better. The class drop could turn things around today. 4-POWERFUL MAN has a couple of works toward the return as he will need some pace to chase. If things are swift upfront early he should be able to come running in the lane.

With only two in here with early speed that leaves some concern as both seem to be committed to the front but if only one between Foggy Kitten and Cookin Roses go, the race may be over. If both are sent away then 7-SUPERSTAR DIVA could get a good pace setup ahead of her. She has run well over the track and shouldn't be too far behind the leaders. She makes her first start of the meet and may sneak off at a decent price. 6-FOGGY KITTEN never got a breather last time as she was sent for the front and faced a pace battle every step of the way.  She should be forwardly placed once again but not sure if she can beat Cookin Roses to the top. 5-COOKIN ROSES is an all or nothing horse. She will get sent away early and may be the fastest to the front. If she clears, she can wire the field but if she faces early pressure she could fold in the lane as well.

This is an odd race with horses coming from some different spots into here. Hoping back class gives a chance to 5-RIVER CACTUS as at one time he was very competitive against much better. He is 9 now but is back in the Manley barn. Maybe the time off followed by three works will have him ready to pop at a decent price. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER takes a class drop off his final start of the year but he was competitive at this level two back. He has three works as well toward the return and I like that Santiago is in the saddle today. 4-MY GUITAR has a little but of tactical speed in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. He ran well in the slop here in his last and will likely get a good stalking trip once again.

Hard to overlook anything from the Vanden Berg barn right now as everything seems to be running well. 4-TRIPLE CHROME ran a game race in his first start of the meet and steps up in class off the score. He should be able to settle just off the early lead, which may be contested, and get the jump on the closers in the lane. 1-CINDY'S G MAN is one of those with speed as he will be winging it from the inside today. The concern is that THE LAST FACT also has speed and will be just to his outside. If these two duke it out early, we may not see either in the lane. 6-C F V RED NOVA has to hope for that pace to chase as he will be sitting back early and looing to run on in the lane. He closed some ground too late in his last after a poor break and should benefit from the added 1/8 of a mile in here.

Tough spot to kick off the Late Pick 4 as the top two contenders in here have had numerous chances to break their maiden. 6-SILVER CHILLER debuts for trainer Ida Spagnola, who has had some talented youngsters in the last couple of years. This one is working well toward the debut and gets Lasix for this start as he may be able to show some speed in a race that is lacking of early pace. 7-DASH TO THE CASH will welcome the added distance off his last as he figures to settle early and run on in the lane. He will need pace to chase but figures to be a factor in the final 16th. 3-INSIDE THE CIRCLE is another that is overdue for a victory as he is winless from 22 career starts. That being said, he has found the board 13 times on his career and should be forwardly placed in here. He may possibly be able to rate close and hang around for a share late.

A group that faced off recently comes back as 7-HURTS SO BAD is the one that just missed in that spot. He rated just off the pace early before running on in the stretch, only to have to shift course late, likely causing him the win. He should be able to keep in the clear from the outside draw and get the jump on the closers in here. 2-VALIANTLY DISCREET is one of a few with speed in this spot. He was sent in his last but was unable to hold on late. He could face some pressure upfront in here but a recent speed bias on the track means you can't toss him out. 6-TEA WITH LEMON is intriguing as he steps up off a maiden score in his last. He will also benefit if the pace is contested upfront as he could rally late at a price.

One of the best rides of the early portion of this meet came from Abel Lezcano aboard 6-LONG TALL WOMAN last time out. A mare that figured to show speed, she got away nearly last in the short sprint in here last. Lezcano didn't panic, instead waiting behind horses while saving some ground through the turn. He split horses at the top of the lane and got up in the shadow of the wire. 1-LUCY's LOOKIN LEFT comes out of that same race last time out as she also had to try to close from the back. He running style does typically leave her off the pace but maybe she gets enough speed to close into in here. 8-APOLLO U ANYWHERE is one with speed as she may look to clear from the outside. She battled in her last and was one that was caught nearing the wire by LONG TALL WOMAN. All six of her wins have come here at Hawthorne as she should be on the gas early once again.