Handicapper Tips & Picks

When #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY debuted back on October 22^nd, they were giving up recency and experience to others in the field. That changes coming back for this second start, upgraded on OptixPLOT and overall upside returning under similar conditions for Block.

#7 AQUACAT was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race back on October 29^th with the races taken off the turf. That race is noted as the class was a step up and to also note the time between starts that otherwise would be a strong negative, though can be excused in this case.

#1 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR shows up in this spot following a vet scratch on November 18^th at a $7500 maiden claiming level. As far as the debut back in August at FanDuel, he broke slow (SLOG) and checked (TROUBLE_S) soon after while his stablemate went on to win as the favorite.

#5 KIANA’S LOVE returns from the October 28^th race and under similar conditions for her second start of the meet. The race shape and her early, tactical speed presents an edge in today’s dynamic as a Quad I Square above the Par Line. 

#7 GHAALEB’S MAGIC should be stalking her from the outside draw and as shown as a tracking Quad I Square with #1 TIME BREAK looking at a similar trip from the rail. #3 SUMMER LOVIN has shown some progression this season and should turn in another honest effort running on late as a Quad IV Square.

Tough to see why #8 PRADA’S MIRACLE would be shorter than the two fillies she finished behind in the October 30^th common race and offers no value as the second (or shorter) choice. If willing to “give a pass” from a rough (TROUBLE_S) and open length winner in the fourth place result and even a WIDE trip on October 9^th with the outside draw; overall she has not shown much progression race-to-race (the same concern for statebred #4 MISS KITTY PIE returning in open company) and some class concerns for Prada’s Miracle (DROP) off the visuals as well. The lack of value also for #6 TANGO CITY one that has had many chances at this level and what you see is what you get from her. Her form coming back in 2022 lacks an edge over many in this field to justify a shorter price. 

#1 PERFECTLY PROUD ran a “winning” effort with her place finish from the Turf Paradise debut back in January. Her return from the 258-day layoff here on October 9^th was a sneaky good effort (B- OptixGRADE) all things considered and with adversity from start to finish. Some regression could have set in wheeling back off that effort in just three weeks and the TRAFFIC trip did her no favors. Her stablemate, #7 MIZZEN MILLIONS was favored on debut and has been freshened for this return and second start. The September 3^rd race has not been a productive event, though the winner, Ms Coronado Chrome return here on October 1^st in an allowance race (finished 9^th) recording an 81 OptixFIG, a jump from the 70 OptixFIG with the win.

#5 CRYSTAL SNOW will make the transition to the turf and added ground. She has shown progression race-to-race and if there is another move forward this would be the time. The October 23^rd race was not an “excuse” in running, though she was very fractious in the GATE and something that does not show up on the running line or chart.

#3 COWGIRL FRANKIE will be class tested again taking on open company though off her TURF physicality she should take to the grass in just her second start over the turf.

#2 FREE LOVE showed run on debut and projected to IMPROVE off the race and did just that here on June 3^rd. Both races had slow (SLOG) starts and from the visuals should show early speed on the stretch out, off the layoff and with Santiago aboard. #9 BEE A WINNER also projects to show early speed (Plot) and improved on the turf last month number wise with a WIDE trip. The intention for the turf was in play for her going back to 2021 when entered three times for the turf at the Fair Grounds when in the care of Mike Maker. 

The Plot position for #5 RAVE ON suggests a potential pace advantage in this race. They return this after with a rider change and as a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) from the October 29^th to improve off of. #6 LOOK AWAY has some buried form and finds significant class relief from his races here this season run for a higher purse and higher OFR/race par.

#3 SCAT SHACK and #4 FLASHY RICHIE have held their form this season and with clean form (lacking Red in the Past 3 Runlines) lack knocks on that front though must improve and require a trip for the win.

#3 TAPIT SAM is upgraded today returning from a BTL effort with the fifth place finish under similar conditions two weeks ago. #1 DYNAMOMETER also wheels right back for this race and from the November 13^th common race. They will move from one post extreme to another drawn the far outside in the three most recent starts and that change alone could assist and avoid another WIDE trip. They also have been able to show legit early sprint speed at times and would not be any shock for Felix to use that tactic here. 

#6 FRISCO LINE shows a similar Plot position, though a shorter number on the morning line is tougher to justify in this case.

#7 KANITHAPPEN could get the trip as shown on Surface/Distance as a Quad III Square with the “Snowflake” Contention. This jockey/trainer combination has had success with these type of front runners, though Kanithappen has not been a typical front running sprinter. They will be forced to use with #5 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE in the race and especially if #2 NACHO S (and even Dynamometer) returns from the layoff and brings the early speed they showed with their maiden win back in July.

The race dynamic is tricky (Yellow PlotFit) showing the Contention as five of the eight land “bunched” up on the Plot. #1 ALMAFUERTE appears to hold the edge of that flight and in terms of OptixFIG in OFR. #5 MINI DRESS returns from a 28-day freshening and some buried form this season that could have her back to top form and upgraded from the Plot, a position taking into account the X_FLOW race back on October 16^th and the WIDE trip quick turnaround two weeks later. 

The Contention could also set up a trip for #8 CAIRO SUMMER one that might not have handled the winter WEATHER and wheeling back from that cold night of racing just 9-days ago.

#6 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN is tougher to make a case for looking at the Plot, though can be taken with a grain of salt with Yellow PlotFit. She will cut back to a sprint, a distance that was her standard before the two route races this season. Her effort a this level back on October 21^st stacks up with hidden form/class recording the B- OptixGRADE. The intention going into that race might have been to cutback to a sprint in the next start though after the place finish, it also made sense for Childers to given her another chance around two turns on November 6^th.

Longshot #11 LUCKY SHOT is worth keeping on the radar as they are not without an upset chance here. The Contention is a “Fire” rating, though paired with a lower SpeedRate that could still present a favorable scenario to a front runner. His Plot position is not the strongest here, though one has to consider he is a lightly raced three-year-old that could still hold upside. His OptixFIG from the return on October 30^th is promising to suggest improvement especially as he recorded an 86 OptixFIG over this course as a juvenile with the win last December. 

Becker will return with a pair in this race including the morning line favorite, #4 WALKER’S WIN. This could be a “wedding/funeral” situation with Walker’s Win coming back off the 11-1 upset win just two weeks ago. He popped with a career top 92 OptixFIG in that first start back in 138-days and could see regression here. #9 W W CRAZY will make his return to Hawthorne and fits on par based on his races here from earlier this season. He also has established form and returning from a higher level claiming race ($68k purse) on November 2^nd at Churchill Downs, a race that has held form with the limited starters that have run back since.

#5 HUEY ATTACK and #7 BRING ME A CHECK should fall into a favorable trip with today’s race shape and first run on #1 TETSU, #6 DIAMOND MAXIMUS and #8 W W CANDY with class as a massive test and would require a top effort today.

Boyce will bring back #10 JEFF THE LION in this spot after the long layoff something of a tougher test for older horses and has had some setbacks trying to return earlier this year and noting a vet scratch here last October. #2 TIGHTROPE also returns here off the 232-day layoff and in this spot as they were a vet scratch from a $20k claiming race on November 6^th.

#4 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT fit back on November 11^th and turned in a solid B- OptixGRADE effort for the level and in her first start back off the 70-day layoff. She fits off that effort and in today’s dynamic as a Quad I Square. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, there is separation between Keepmeinthe Moment and Quad I to the next flight and cluster of Squares with #1 IGGY BIGS, #5 MARYS LAST SONG and #9 MAUREENLOVESFRANK runners with form this season though still require more for this allowance level. #7 CHROME ATTACK is upgraded on Standard and does have a B OptixGRADE at this allowance condition over the turf back in June that fits here if able to transfer to the main track.

The B- OptixGRADE for #3 JUDY’S MS. OFFICER on October 28^th should not be ignored here, though noting she is cross entered in a TURF race earlier this weekend. 

7-AQUACAT seems to hold the edge. He didn’t beat a rival in his debut at Keeneland early this year but he’s coming off two straight second-place finish; most recently a turf race at this level. But, this race is probably going to move to the main track, if the weatherman is right, and he also finished second at Ellis under similar circumstances. 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY only split the field in his debut but runners from his barn often improve greatly in their second starts. He’s had two good works since that race. Could be ready for these. 8-BON DEUX moves up in class but he’s had two previous turf races and didn’t run too badly in either of them. 

5-KIANA’S LOVE seems slightly the best. She finished third in her first start of the meet after winning three of her last four downstate. She could have plenty of company on the front end but believe she holds a slight advantage in the speed department. Might wire them. 7-GHAALEB’S MAGIC just missed. She took the lead late and just failed to hang on. Maybe today. 1-TIME BREAK finished in the money in two of her three races at the meet. She does look like a contender again. Might get there first.

The connections of 10-D’ORO FOREVER entered for main track only and gets their wish. This filly hasn’t shown a lot in her five races but all of them were against tougher rivals. Few in here are in good form. She might finally graduate. 2-FREE LOVE is likely to go right for the lead. She’s stretching in distance for the first time and could be lengths quicker than any of her rivals. She’s been training well since her last race in June. Might take it all the way. 6-TANGO CITY makes her 18^th start as a maiden and she hasn’t been especially effective on the main track but think she’ll display pretty good speed in this race and could be right there if the front runners run out of gas.

5-RAVE ON probably deserves to be the choice. He has plenty of speed and he’s dropping in class. Might never look back. 3-SCAT SHACK finished second in both local starts; both at this level and distance. Don’t think he’s quite as quick as top choice but he’ll never be far back and probably leads the second tier of runners. Could be right there throughout. 4-FLASHY RICHIE will be ready to take advantage if the top pair, and maybe a couple others hook up in a speed duel. He appears to be the best closer in here. Can run by them all.

3-TAPIT SAM makes his first start after the claim. He finished second in his local debut but didn’t race again for a month. In his comeback race, he fought his rider much of the way but still managed to make up about six lengths late in that shorter sprint. The slight stretch out to six furlongs could be just what the doctor ordered. 7-KANITHAPPEN might appreciate the cut back to six furlongs. He dueled for the lead for much of last and only ran out of gas in the final sixteenth. He’ll be dueling with the same runner he did in last but will still give him the benefit of the doubt. 6-FRISCO LINE should have dead aim late. He was favored in his first two local starts but didn’t show much late run. Maybe today.

7-FIRST KITTEN wasn’t showing much in Indiana but shipped here to score  a daylight maiden win. They tried her on the turf after that and she finished up the track. But she came back on dirt for last and again dominated. They aren’t going crazy with her and jumping her up in class. She’s going to tough right back. 2-HELL OF THE NORTH is an interesting runner. This multiple stakes-placed filly went bad late last year and did no better in her 2022 debut. But she is quick. With the drop to this level she might fly to the early lead and stay there. 6-AIKEN TO BE TAKEN turns back in distance. Would like her better if this race was at six and a half but pretty sure she’s going to come flying late. Just might run out of real estate.

Not sure how good 4-WALKER’S WIN might be but he was ignored in his local debut, despite winning his previous three races, and he simply crushed the field. He’ll be facing some pretty salty runners this time out but think he’ll be up to the challenge. 2-TIGHTROPE will be sent right to the lead. However, he hasn’t raced since April and even before his layoff six furlongs seemed to be too long for him. But, he is quick and he has been training well. Might last. 9-W W CRAZY, fresh off a good second-place finish in tough open claimers at Churchill, is worth a look. He would probably prefer a bit more distance but he’s likely to finish fast. Can share.

4-KEEPMEINTHEMOMENT ran well in her first start for this barn. Claimed from Del Mar in September, she probably needed a start after over two months off. Think she’ll be far fitter today. They could have a tough time beating her. 2-AVASARALA fits well. She’s not as quick as some in here but that could work to her advantage. Stalks the early pace today and fires late to reach contention in midstretch. 8-JOURNEYIST showed little at this level in her last start but she had been in good form prior. Plus, she handles off tracks well and there is a possibility that the rain might continue through the day.

On or off turf, the likely favorite looks to be the one to take this race. Things have turned around in his last couple of starts as he is also likely to show early speed. Expect him to be a heavy favorite in here today.

This is a weird race as it seems to be musical jockeys all over the place. Time Break is the one who keeps her same rider as she ran on late after a wide trip. The pace looks to be contested early in here so a stalking trip should be the winning trip.

Scat Shack ran on pretty well in his last as he was in a good stalking spot and battled on when the pace gave way ahead of him. A switch in the saddle to Tavares for a barn that has had success in a handful of starts this meet.

A tough condition as so many of these have had so many chances to grab their second career win and haven't been able to do so. I liked Kanithappen last out and he raced well with the turn back in distance. Baird back in the saddle as a stalking trip could be a winning trip.

First Kitten will be a likely heavy favorite but Almafuerte gets a rider change and loves this Hawthorne track. The only times in her career that she hasn't found the board at Hawthorne are her last two races where she ran 4th in each. The pace should be honest here and if the track comes up wet she moves way up.

Walker's Win stepped up and ran a huge race last time out. What was most impressive was that he rated back a bit early on and then took over into the lane. There is some other pace in here and the tracking trip could be the route to go.

Keepmeinthe Moment came from California to Hawthorne prior to her last out and ran a solid race. She showed speed, finishing second to Long Tall Woman, a horse who came right back and won this past Friday.