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Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Peter's Simulcast Plays
Fair Grounds Race 1
Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 2
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 3
Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 4
Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 5
Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 6
Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 7
Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 8
Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 9
Post Time 5:15 PM CST
Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:53 PM CST
#8 IOYA AGAIN fits today’s race dynamic tracking as a Square in the center of the PLOT with Green Keywords going back to August at Canterbury Park. The Plot also finds an upgrade today for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE, one that might require that advantage looking to return to winning ways for the first time since July of 2021. #4 PERFECT WAGER also lands in a similar Plot position, though given the connections and coming off a win at this level, should find public support and likely shorter than the morning line and could even be favored.
With today’s mile, the distance limitations are in play for #7 HANNITY (SHORTER?) especially with rival, #10 CAMMACK in the field as the two share a similar Plot shape/position. They will be joined by others in the group to play a role in the “Sun” Contention and higher-than-average 59 SpeedRate.
#6 KRAMDEN is deserving of a mention here coming back from an EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago with TROUBLE+ into the first turn causing Bendezu to lose their iron and ultimately their chances at a race. The surface switch is less of a concern as Kramden has turf form, than class as this is a step up from his races this season.
Hawthorne Race 2 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 3:21 PM CST
The debut for #5 VOSTRA was a sneaky good, BTL effort making a WIDE MOVE and should benefit from the debut experience landing here for a second start. Their effort all around was right in line with #4 LORRAINE’S LEGACY both earning C+ OptixGRADES.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Getting that win has been tough at times for #7 IAN GLASS. That said, he is tough to fault turning in honest, consistent efforts and should be in the right spot for that win returning to this circuit for Vanden Burg. He is shown as part of the Quad I “Fire” Contention though can stalk-and-pounce (EP RunStyle) and the class edge (above the Par Line) in this race paired with his finishing (Square) ability to hold an edge of that Quad I group.
#3 MALPAIS returns from a layoff and TROUBLE in this races this season where he could sit closer to the pace than his Quad IV position and not the true “closer” #9 STAR OF KODIAK is.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
The Plot position for #1 C F V RED NOVA is as tough to ignore as the 536-day layoff returning here for Gonzalez and could create some compensation to balance out based on the morning line. It should also be noted they were entered and on the track to run in a turf sprint allowance here on October 30th though was a late vet scratch, scratched at 29-1 nearing post time.
His former Hugh Robertson stablemate, #2 JOHNNY UP could improve in his second start off the layoff and conditioning from the WIDE trip three weeks ago. #5 BRIANS WAY scratched from that common race (trainer scratch and drew the rail) on November 4th. He has shown speed figure progression this season at FanDuel and will be required to transition that form back to Hawthorne. The connections had him running above condition at the N3 level back on September 24th and shifts back to the N2 condition here though still finds a class test as today’s race par is higher than that most recent event.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:43 PM CST
Both #4 VERKLIMT and #5 QUILTING PARTY won races under similar conditions and over this course and distance to make them logical players in this race. #2 WAR MUSIC also has some upside in terms of recency and will likely return that form stretching back out to a route distance here.
As the morning line favorite, #6 MAKEMEBELIEVE is capable with a top effort though will be racing off a 72-day layoff and showing limited works since the perfect, ideal trip to win on September 15th at Canterbury.
#3 MARIA’S GIFT also came up with a favorable flow aided trip against only two others on September 16th at FanDuel. She shows an interesting scratch from November 9th at HS Indy entered in a similar conditioned claiming race on the turf entered for trainer, Frank Martinez.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
#1 TWO COOKIE RULE
comes back to this N3 claiming level
and with the change in distance. He carries improving for this race and even
positive intent with the quick 6-day turnaround and rider change for this
event.
#6 KNIEVEL returns with a barn and rider change looking to IMPROVE off the November 11th journey. Trip is key for this one as shown from the Plot as a Quad IV Square as well as from the races this season. #4 BETTER THINK TWICE will also require the right trip given some versatility with the changes on the Plot. That ideal trip is key for this individual with some distance limitations.
Regression was projected and expected for #2 MY BROTHER CAM finishing all out (GALLOP-) on October 14th and wheeling back in two weeks with the rise in class. With that race under his belt and the extra 28-days since, they should have plenty of recovery time for event. Their trip could become a hurdle with #7 BOURBON DELIGHT returning in this spot and one that has legit early speed and has been his most effective when allowed a “LONE” lead. Both #3 ZARMAE and #5 ICECAP are not impossible in here, though longshots for the right reasons.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:36 PM CST
Longshot #5 LAVENDER EARL is tough to make a case for looking at the Plot in a lower percentage win position as a Quad IV Circle however he has just two sprints impacting his Plot position here, the debut race at Turfway last December and the higher level claiming sprint on September 25th. His form cycle is positive coming into this race and returning to this level from a solid speed figure and similar “flow upgrade” from the October 8th race. He has races and OptixFIG that stack up on the higher end of today’s race par along with the “dirtied” form for those that want to get creative and out of the comfort zone.
#2 BIG SPORT and #4 KIERKEGAARD return from the common race on November 4th and three horse BLANKET finish at the wire. Both are upgraded here as Big Sport comes back today with a “flow upgrade” and Kierkegaard capable of falling into another favorable trip.
Butler has sent out a pair of winners this season in a limited sample and shows up with a pair in this race that look capable with #3 SHANGHAI POINT upgraded on Surface/Distance and #7 SOUPER FORTUNE putting his perfect 2-for-2 race record this season on the line with the step up in class.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:03 PM CST
#6 KHOZY’S KITTEN has some buried form impacting her Plot position and shape. and should be sitting on a top effort returning to this circuit for Hernandez. She was a "flow upgrade" staying on as the BOS in a four horse duel with the race shape setting up for the winner, #8 INDAWIN.
The “Fire” Contention plays towards the Run Style for #8 INDAWIN, though a Quad IV Square, “deep closer” with gate issues (SLOG) as the favorite (a change from the 11-1 October 29th race) can be a serious liability.
Oscar Sanchez shows up with a pair in this race including #2 PRANCIPANTS one that was scratched from a similar OFR claiming race on November 20th and could step forward off the WIDE trip two weeks ago and in this second start off the layoff. The pace with the “Fire” Contention and 34 SpeedRate could assist her trip and first run on stablemate #5 PRINCESS CONSUELA. She won under similar conditions back on October 16th, though was flattered by the race FLOW and prevailing in the photo (BLANKET) finish for the win.
In terms of the “Fire” Contention, #9 FOGGY KITTEN is upgraded as the lone Square in Quad I of that group. She shares a running line with #1 TWO MORE TIMES from the common race on September 20th at Fan Duel. Two More Times can be upgraded on the Plot, however, has struggled transferring her form at top efforts to Hawthorne.
Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Full Card
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Old timer 10-CAMMACK looks like the best of
these. Of course, that is turf only. This venerable gentleman has earned nearly
$600,000 in his career, winning 16 of 62 races. He’s still quick enough to
stalking the early pace. There’s a good chance that he’ll edge by late. 8-IOYA
AGAIN, from the same barn, certainly figures. He’s dropping to the lowest level
of his career. Not sure he’ll run if this race comes off the lawn but he might
be the one most capable of beating his stablemate, and everyone else, if this
race does stay on turf. 4-PERFECT WAGER has been the beneficiary of races
coming off grass. He won his last when that happened and was barely beaten in
his previous start. Not crazy about him if the race does stay on but he could
prove tough to beat if we move to the main track again.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:21 PM CST
4-LORRAINE’S LEGACY finished fourth as the
lukewarm favorite in her only start. That race was originally scheduled for
turf. She tired late after stalking the pace in that event. Coupled with three
good drills since, that was the perfect tightener. She is likely to be far
tougher, at a much lower price, in this contest. 5-VOSTRA made up a lot of
ground midrace in her debut after getting off to a terrible start. She did
flatten out in that race but she did expend a lot of energy getting into
contention and she finished less than a length behind top choice. Wish she had
a gate work since that race and really more than one workout in the five weeks
since but she still has to be considered after that start. 6-DESSERT FIRST
makes her fourth start. She raced competitively in her first three, two were on
the turf, and she has proven that she can get the distance. Certainly figures.
The well-bred 1-TAVERN sports four decent workouts but all have been three
furlongs. Can’t believe she’ll be ready for a route race off those drills and
figure this is only a “training” race but maybe she’ll surprise.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
7-IAN GLASS hasn’t had many bad races over the
last couple of years and won four of 16 while finishing in the money another
seven times. He never won at this exact distance but he has been a
highly-effective turf sprinter. However, this is not an easy race and most of
the field can be considered contenders. He seems to have the perfect running
style for this speed-filled race but can only make him a slim pick. Can’t
believe that trainer Rivelli will run both 11-ADIOS ASHER and 10-TIGHTROPE
since they will be knocking heads on the front end is both go. Would probably
favor Asher over Tightrope since he’s had far more success but either can win,
though not either could win if they both go. Would love 3-MALPAIS if it rained
and this race came off the lawn but that doesn’t seem likely.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
The well-traveled 1-C F V RED NOVA could
surprise. This will be his sixth track in only nine starts but he is dropping
to his lowest level ever and he appears to be the only closer in a race filled
with tiring speed. He’s been off for over a year but working regularly. Getting
the 10-pound weight break with the apprentice who scored his first career win
only yesterday doesn’t hurt. 6-MUD ISLAND tired late as the favorite in his
local debut but that race was contested on an off track. It was also his first
race in about six weeks. He was claimed from that event by a barn that does
well with their claims. The six-furlong distance could be challenging but he
might be able to make it work. 4-TRIPLE CHROME took 10 races to break his
maiden, which he did in last, but it doesn’t seem like it will be long before
he gets his second victory. It could even happen today. He’s jumping in
claiming price but he did look sharp in that win. Can make it two in a row.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:43 PM CST
4-VERKLIMT gets the call. He was a strong winner
in his first start of the meet and doesn’t seem to be meeting any tougher in
this spot. Had one workout in the five weeks since that race but hopefully it
is enough. 6-MAKEMEBELIEVE is another coming off a victory. However, his was
two months ago and he’s had only limited drills since. 2-WAR MUSIC is worth
another look. He was overmatched in last but finished a few lengths behind
Makemebelieve three races back and he’s been racing regularly since. Could have
a fitness edge over top pair.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
2-MY BROTHER CAM drops despite good form. He won
his race two starts back and finished a distant third in last. He owns decent
speed and could have a bit of a class edge over these. Might prevail. 6-KNIEVEL
showed little in last but he finished in the money in his prior two starts. Got
claimed from last. Could bounce back for new connections. 7-BOURBON DELIGHT
didn’t really fire in last but he might be just about as quick as top choice.
If that rival doesn’t fire today, this gelding can steal this on the lead.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:36 PM CST
There is so much speed in this race I had to
find a runner that didn’t necessarily want the lead. 4-KIERKGAARD is the one.
He just missed to the tough Twirling Roses in last, barely nosing out Big
Sport. The pace of this race sets up in a similar fashion. He might be able to
grab the late lead. 2-BIG SPORT is always tough but especially tough here. He’s
been victorious in eight of his 16 local races along with four other
in-the-money finishes. He finished only a nose behind top choice in last. Can
get the best of that rival this time. 8-TIME HEIST owns pretty good speed. Not
sure he can get the lead but I like that he doesn’t fade as quickly as some of
his rivals. Could hang on to share.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:03 PM CST
Most of the runners in here have been taking
turns beating each other so whose turn is it today? Guess I’ll go with 8-IDWIN.
I’m not in love with her chances but she is dropping back to the right level
and her versatility allows her the luxury of competing no matter what early
pace develops. 9-FOGGY KITTEN tired badly in last but she was in versus better.
She won her previous three races. She could reawaken with the drop. 7-APOLLO U
ANYWHERE tossed in a bit of a clunker in last but she was facing better on
turf. She’s been quite successful here in the past, winning five of her 11
local starts. Good speed should have her right there throughout.
Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 2:53 PM CST
You have to feel badly for this group of horses as this is the one condition that time and again seems to be in spots where races are taken off the grass. Fingers crossed the anticipated Saturday precipitation isn't much or holds off until later in the day as this is a very good race. So much back class in here as Ioya Again is one of two Chris Block entrants in this race. The mile distance suits as he has some versatility and should be able to find a good stalking spot early. He also has a recent race compared to some others in here and should be sharp with a return to turf.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:21 PM CST
Vostra is one of those horses that you wait for its return and then hope there is some value with it. In this one's debut she drew an outside post, got off a step slowly and raced wide the entire trip. Along the backside and into the far turn, she made a very strong move, ranging up at one point to challenge the leaders before the toll of the added distance and premature move caught up to her. She was still able to hold on for 5th in a larger field. Because this field is shorter today we aren't getting the 45-1 that we saw in the debut but anywhere from 4-1 or higher will be well worth playing.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Two in here entered for Vanden Berg but Emigh typically is on the one expected to run best. Ian Glass looks to tuck in just behind the leaders and get a perfect trip in this spot. He comes off a strong turf sprint in Kentucky in his last and looks to be sitting on a victory in here.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
You can't always say that bottom level maiden races are key races, but the string of recent races that Triple Chrome comes out of have proven to produce some solid runners in the claiming ranks. The winners of his starts two and three races back both came back to win their following start. For Triple Chrome, the addition of Lasix seems to have turned things around for this one. Despite the short field there is some pace in here to chase as Emigh should be able to allow his mount to rate and run on in the lane.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:43 PM CST
A pretty competitive race despite the short field. The recent race and added distance are why I landed on War Music in here. While the likely favorites could potentially need a start off the rest, War Music sprinted two weeks ago in a an allowance race that was much tougher than what we see here. The last time she ran two turns was in a good third place effort behind Makemebelieve in September. War Music has started twice since that race while Makemebelieve makes her first start back since that win, with spaced out workouts leading into here.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
A curious race here as the ownership group of the 1 and 2 horse have entrants for different trainers in this spot. My Brother Cam being the one that is taking the class plunge today. Went to Better Think Twice off the last race where he found a good spot early and saved ground into the final turn. In that turn he got buried behind a tiring speed and was shuffled back to nearly last. He altered wide in the lane and only had a mild late effort. Have to think with clear sailing he will be right there in here.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:36 PM CST
This is a condition that can be hit and miss at times when it comes to field size, pace scenario and ability. This spot doesn't seem to have come as tough as prior editions of this race and there isn't quite the early pace. Big Sport is a specialist at this level and over this track, winning half of his 16 Hawthorne starts. Look for him to clear rather easily in here and never look back.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:03 PM CST
As much as I want to try to beat the favorite in here it just seems like this race will be the perfect pace setup for Indawin. The only thing that may work against her is the distance as she has never gone 5 1/2 furlongs. There are 3-4 in here that seem to be committed to the front though as the potential for a pace meltdown is highly likely.
Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:21 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:43 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:36 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:03 PM CST
Sat November 26th, 2022 |
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Harness Helper
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1
P 7 Wilddriverbumblebee 4 Hashtag Money 5 Arties Ideal
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2
P 7 Points North 2 American History 4 Stonebridge Rex
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3
P 1 Outlaw Aceofspades 3 Giddy Up Max 6 Night Club Hanover
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4
P 5 Real Willey 8 Illgetmyown Thanks 1 P L Oliver
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5
P 1 Last Beach 4 Jabberwocky 7 Acapulco Sunburn
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6
P 6 Saulsbrook Victor 5 Sintra 2 Legion Seelster
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7
P 9 Blumoon Bayama 1 Bettim Again 4 Menlo Park
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8
P 4 Bettorbeflyin 8 Better Be Gouda 1 Century Hannibal
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9
P 6 Wheels On Fire 4 Carbine 2 Desperate Man
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10
P 8 Pointomygranson 6 Lets Get Pickled 7 Major Ace
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 11
P 2 The Boss Said 1 Uncontrollable 8 Hp Momentum