Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 IOYA AGAIN fits today’s race dynamic tracking as a Square in the center of the PLOT with Green Keywords going back to August at Canterbury Park. The Plot also finds an upgrade today for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE, one that might require that advantage looking to return to winning ways for the first time since July of 2021. #4 PERFECT WAGER also lands in a similar Plot position, though given the connections and coming off a win at this level, should find public support and likely shorter than the morning line and could even be favored.

With today’s mile, the distance limitations are in play for #7 HANNITY (SHORTER?) especially with rival, #10 CAMMACK in the field as the two share a similar Plot shape/position. They will be joined by others in the group to play a role in the “Sun” Contention and higher-than-average 59 SpeedRate. 

#9 DELFT BLUE is an honest race horse that is tough to knock. The connections will return to this circuit off the HS Indy win last month and slight step up on class. #3 DRAMATIC KITTEN lacks an upgrade on the Plot, however, holds competitive OptixFIG in ORF/par over this turf course from earlier this year and has improving numbers coming back from the layoff on opening day.

#6 KRAMDEN is deserving of a mention here coming back from an EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago with TROUBLE+ into the first turn causing Bendezu to lose their iron and ultimately their chances at a race. The surface switch is less of a concern as Kramden has turf form, than class as this is a step up from his races this season.

Getting that win has been tough at times for #7 IAN GLASS. That said, he is tough to fault turning in honest, consistent efforts and should be in the right spot for that win returning to this circuit for Vanden Burg. He is shown as part of the Quad I “Fire” Contention though can stalk-and-pounce (EP RunStyle) and the class edge (above the Par Line) in this race paired with his finishing (Square) ability to hold an edge of that Quad I group. 

Standard Plot suggests, #8 LAND MARK DEAL might not be as far off the pace (Quad II Square) as it might appear with the change in distance returning for this sprint. Outside of trip his class, form, and speed stack up on par. Land Mark Deal should offer value over #6 RACE DRIVER with the two in a similar Plot position/shape.

#3 MALPAIS returns from a layoff and TROUBLE in this races this season where he could sit closer to the pace than his Quad IV position and not the true “closer” #9 STAR OF KODIAK is.

The Plot position for #1 C F V RED NOVA is as tough to ignore as the 536-day layoff returning here for Gonzalez and could create some compensation to balance out based on the morning line. It should also be noted they were entered and on the track to run in a turf sprint allowance here on October 30^th though was a late vet scratch, scratched at 29-1 nearing post time.

Current form and potential pace could upgrade, #6 MUD ISLAND in Quad I and as the lone “E” RunStyle horse in the field. They were favored at this level back on November 4^th and lacked finish after taking pace pressure, though was a Fast early (F O4S) half mile with the win and place finishers, Lord Dylan and Lapis Lazuli closed from off the pace. 

His former Hugh Robertson stablemate, #2 JOHNNY UP could improve in his second start off the layoff and conditioning from the WIDE trip three weeks ago. #5 BRIANS WAY scratched from that common race (trainer scratch and drew the rail) on November 4^th. He has shown speed figure progression this season at FanDuel and will be required to transition that form back to Hawthorne. The connections had him running above condition at the N3 level back on September 24^th and shifts back to the N2 condition here though still finds a class test as today’s race par is higher than that most recent event.

Both #4 VERKLIMT and #5 QUILTING PARTY won races under similar conditions and over this course and distance to make them logical players in this race. #2 WAR MUSIC also has some upside in terms of recency and will likely return that form stretching back out to a route distance here.

As the morning line favorite, #6 MAKEMEBELIEVE is capable with a top effort though will be racing off a 72-day layoff and showing limited works since the perfect, ideal trip to win on September 15^th at Canterbury. 

#3 MARIA’S GIFT also came up with a favorable flow aided trip against only two others on September 16^th at FanDuel. She shows an interesting scratch from November 9^th at HS Indy entered in a similar conditioned claiming race on the turf entered for trainer, Frank Martinez.

#1 TWO COOKIE RULE comes back to this N3 claiming level and with the change in distance. He carries improving for this race and even positive intent with the quick 6-day turnaround and rider change for this event.  

#6 KNIEVEL returns with a barn and rider change looking to IMPROVE off the November 11^th journey. Trip is key for this one as shown from the Plot as a Quad IV Square as well as from the races this season. #4 BETTER THINK TWICE will also require the right trip given some versatility with the changes on the Plot. That ideal trip is key for this individual with some distance limitations.

Regression was projected and expected for #2 MY BROTHER CAM finishing all out (GALLOP-) on October 14^th and wheeling back in two weeks with the rise in class. With that race under his belt and the extra 28-days since, they should have plenty of recovery time for event. Their trip could become a hurdle with #7 BOURBON DELIGHT returning in this spot and one that has legit early speed and has been his most effective when allowed a “LONE” lead. Both #3 ZARMAE and #5 ICECAP are not impossible in here, though longshots for the right reasons.

Longshot #5 LAVENDER EARL is tough to make a case for looking at the Plot in a lower percentage win position as a Quad IV Circle however he has just two sprints impacting his Plot position here, the debut race at Turfway last December and the higher level claiming sprint on September 25^th. His form cycle is positive coming into this race and returning to this level from a solid speed figure and similar “flow upgrade” from the October 8^th race. He has races and OptixFIG that stack up on the higher end of today’s race par along with the “dirtied” form for those that want to get creative and out of the comfort zone.  

A more logical route: #6 JACK VAN BERG could have a pace advantage in this event and returning to this condition where he recorded a B OptixGRADE as the BOS through a Very Fast (X_FLOW) early pace setting up the winner, Bravo Bravo to close late for the win and the two together at the wire. #8 TIME HEIST also returns from the November 6^th common race and has been consistent this season with the underneath finishes and B- OptixGRADES.

#2 BIG SPORT and #4 KIERKEGAARD return from the common race on November 4^th and three horse BLANKET finish at the wire. Both are upgraded here as Big Sport comes back today with a “flow upgrade” and Kierkegaard capable of falling into another favorable trip.

Butler has sent out a pair of winners this season in a limited sample and shows up with a pair in this race that look capable with #3 SHANGHAI POINT upgraded on Surface/Distance and #7 SOUPER FORTUNE putting his perfect 2-for-2 race record this season on the line with the step up in class.

#6 KHOZY’S KITTEN has some buried form impacting her Plot position and shape.  and should be sitting on a top effort returning to this circuit for Hernandez. She was a "flow upgrade" staying on as the BOS in a four horse duel with the race shape setting up for the winner, #8 INDAWIN. 

The “Fire” Contention plays towards the Run Style for #8 INDAWIN, though a Quad IV Square, “deep closer” with gate issues (SLOG) as the favorite (a change from the 11-1 October 29th race) can be a serious liability. 

Oscar Sanchez shows up with a pair in this race including #2 PRANCIPANTS one that was scratched from a similar OFR claiming race on November 20^th and could step forward off the WIDE trip two weeks ago and in this second start off the layoff. The pace with the “Fire” Contention and 34 SpeedRate could assist her trip and first run on stablemate #5 PRINCESS CONSUELA. She won under similar conditions back on October 16^th, though was flattered by the race FLOW and prevailing in the photo (BLANKET) finish for the win. 

In terms of the “Fire” Contention, #9 FOGGY KITTEN is upgraded as the lone Square in Quad I of that group. She shares a running line with #1 TWO MORE TIMES from the common race on September 20^th at Fan Duel. Two More Times can be upgraded on the Plot, however, has struggled transferring her form at top efforts to Hawthorne. 

Old timer 10-CAMMACK looks like the best of these. Of course, that is turf only. This venerable gentleman has earned nearly $600,000 in his career, winning 16 of 62 races. He’s still quick enough to stalking the early pace. There’s a good chance that he’ll edge by late. 8-IOYA AGAIN, from the same barn, certainly figures. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career. Not sure he’ll run if this race comes off the lawn but he might be the one most capable of beating his stablemate, and everyone else, if this race does stay on turf. 4-PERFECT WAGER has been the beneficiary of races coming off grass. He won his last when that happened and was barely beaten in his previous start. Not crazy about him if the race does stay on but he could prove tough to beat if we move to the main track again.

4-LORRAINE’S LEGACY finished fourth as the lukewarm favorite in her only start. That race was originally scheduled for turf. She tired late after stalking the pace in that event. Coupled with three good drills since, that was the perfect tightener. She is likely to be far tougher, at a much lower price, in this contest. 5-VOSTRA made up a lot of ground midrace in her debut after getting off to a terrible start. She did flatten out in that race but she did expend a lot of energy getting into contention and she finished less than a length behind top choice. Wish she had a gate work since that race and really more than one workout in the five weeks since but she still has to be considered after that start. 6-DESSERT FIRST makes her fourth start. She raced competitively in her first three, two were on the turf, and she has proven that she can get the distance. Certainly figures. The well-bred 1-TAVERN sports four decent workouts but all have been three furlongs. Can’t believe she’ll be ready for a route race off those drills and figure this is only a “training” race but maybe she’ll surprise.

7-IAN GLASS hasn’t had many bad races over the last couple of years and won four of 16 while finishing in the money another seven times. He never won at this exact distance but he has been a highly-effective turf sprinter. However, this is not an easy race and most of the field can be considered contenders. He seems to have the perfect running style for this speed-filled race but can only make him a slim pick. Can’t believe that trainer Rivelli will run both 11-ADIOS ASHER and 10-TIGHTROPE since they will be knocking heads on the front end is both go. Would probably favor Asher over Tightrope since he’s had far more success but either can win, though not either could win if they both go. Would love 3-MALPAIS if it rained and this race came off the lawn but that doesn’t seem likely.

The well-traveled 1-C F V RED NOVA could surprise. This will be his sixth track in only nine starts but he is dropping to his lowest level ever and he appears to be the only closer in a race filled with tiring speed. He’s been off for over a year but working regularly. Getting the 10-pound weight break with the apprentice who scored his first career win only yesterday doesn’t hurt. 6-MUD ISLAND tired late as the favorite in his local debut but that race was contested on an off track. It was also his first race in about six weeks. He was claimed from that event by a barn that does well with their claims. The six-furlong distance could be challenging but he might be able to make it work. 4-TRIPLE CHROME took 10 races to break his maiden, which he did in last, but it doesn’t seem like it will be long before he gets his second victory. It could even happen today. He’s jumping in claiming price but he did look sharp in that win. Can make it two in a row.

4-VERKLIMT gets the call. He was a strong winner in his first start of the meet and doesn’t seem to be meeting any tougher in this spot. Had one workout in the five weeks since that race but hopefully it is enough. 6-MAKEMEBELIEVE is another coming off a victory. However, his was two months ago and he’s had only limited drills since. 2-WAR MUSIC is worth another look. He was overmatched in last but finished a few lengths behind Makemebelieve three races back and he’s been racing regularly since. Could have a fitness edge over top pair.

2-MY BROTHER CAM drops despite good form. He won his race two starts back and finished a distant third in last. He owns decent speed and could have a bit of a class edge over these. Might prevail. 6-KNIEVEL showed little in last but he finished in the money in his prior two starts. Got claimed from last. Could bounce back for new connections. 7-BOURBON DELIGHT didn’t really fire in last but he might be just about as quick as top choice. If that rival doesn’t fire today, this gelding can steal this on the lead.

There is so much speed in this race I had to find a runner that didn’t necessarily want the lead. 4-KIERKGAARD is the one. He just missed to the tough Twirling Roses in last, barely nosing out Big Sport. The pace of this race sets up in a similar fashion. He might be able to grab the late lead. 2-BIG SPORT is always tough but especially tough here. He’s been victorious in eight of his 16 local races along with four other in-the-money finishes. He finished only a nose behind top choice in last. Can get the best of that rival this time. 8-TIME HEIST owns pretty good speed. Not sure he can get the lead but I like that he doesn’t fade as quickly as some of his rivals. Could hang on to share.

Most of the runners in here have been taking turns beating each other so whose turn is it today? Guess I’ll go with 8-IDWIN. I’m not in love with her chances but she is dropping back to the right level and her versatility allows her the luxury of competing no matter what early pace develops. 9-FOGGY KITTEN tired badly in last but she was in versus better. She won her previous three races. She could reawaken with the drop. 7-APOLLO U ANYWHERE tossed in a bit of a clunker in last but she was facing better on turf. She’s been quite successful here in the past, winning five of her 11 local starts. Good speed should have her right there throughout.

Vostra is one of those horses that you wait for its return and then hope there is some value with it. In this one's debut she drew an outside post, got off a step slowly and raced wide the entire trip. Along the backside and into the far turn, she made a very strong move, ranging up at one point to challenge the leaders before the toll of the added distance and premature move caught up to her. She was still able to hold on for 5th in a larger field. Because this field is shorter today we aren't getting the 45-1 that we saw in the debut but anywhere from 4-1 or higher will be well worth playing.

Two in here entered for Vanden Berg but Emigh typically is on the one expected to run best. Ian Glass looks to tuck in just behind the leaders and get a perfect trip in this spot. He comes off a strong turf sprint in Kentucky in his last and looks to be sitting on a victory in here.

You can't always say that bottom level maiden races are key races, but the string of recent races that Triple Chrome comes out of have proven to produce some solid runners in the claiming ranks. The winners of his starts two and three races back both came back to win their following start. For Triple Chrome, the addition of Lasix seems to have turned things around for this one. Despite the short field there is some pace in here to chase as Emigh should be able to allow his mount to rate and run on in the lane.

A pretty competitive race despite the short field. The recent race and added distance are why I landed on War Music in here. While the likely favorites could potentially need a start off the rest, War Music sprinted two weeks ago in a an allowance race that was much tougher than what we see here. The last time she ran two turns was in a good third place effort behind Makemebelieve in September. War Music has started twice since that race while Makemebelieve makes her first start back since that win, with spaced out workouts leading into here.

A curious race here as the ownership group of the 1 and 2 horse have entrants for different trainers in this spot. My Brother Cam being the one that is taking the class plunge today. Went to Better Think Twice off the last race where he found a good spot early and saved ground into the final turn. In that turn he got buried behind a tiring speed and was shuffled back to nearly last. He altered wide in the lane and only had a mild late effort. Have to think with clear sailing he will be right there in here.

This is a condition that can be hit and miss at times when it comes to field size, pace scenario and ability. This spot doesn't seem to have come as tough as prior editions of this race and there isn't quite the early pace. Big Sport is a specialist at this level and over this track, winning half of his 16 Hawthorne starts. Look for him to clear rather easily in here and never look back.

As much as I want to try to beat the favorite in here it just seems like this race will be the perfect pace setup for Indawin. The only thing that may work against her is the distance as she has never gone 5 1/2 furlongs. There are 3-4 in here that seem to be committed to the front though as the potential for a pace meltdown is highly likely.

P 7 Wilddriverbumblebee 4 Hashtag Money 5 Arties Ideal

P 7 Points North 2 American History 4 Stonebridge Rex

P 1 Outlaw Aceofspades 3 Giddy Up Max 6 Night Club Hanover

P 5 Real Willey 8 Illgetmyown Thanks 1 P L Oliver

P 1 Last Beach 4 Jabberwocky 7 Acapulco Sunburn

P 6 Saulsbrook Victor 5 Sintra 2 Legion Seelster

P 9 Blumoon Bayama 1 Bettim Again 4 Menlo Park

P 4 Bettorbeflyin 8 Better Be Gouda 1 Century Hannibal

P 6 Wheels On Fire 4 Carbine 2 Desperate Man

P 8 Pointomygranson 6 Lets Get Pickled 7 Major Ace

P 2 The Boss Said 1 Uncontrollable 8 Hp Momentum