Daily Selections
HAWTHORNE – FRIDAY, SEP 30
Ron Uchman
Race 1
1-JUST RIGHT MIKE looks tough in this spot. He looks like the best speed, he ran well here in the spring, and he’s dropping in class after facing better in Minnesota recently. 5-SIR ACEALOT is another that has had Hawthorne success. He raced one time after getting claimed here in late June, but he was facing far better on turf at Ellis. He’s back at the right level and back on the right surface. His rider and trainer are already off to red-hot starts. Could be the best of these. 6-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is usually in the hunt late. He showed little as the favorite in last downstate but could bounce back in his Hawthorne return.
Race 2
4-NOT VERY GENTLE showed little in Indiana in what turned out to be a key race but he’s taking on a far easier field today. He generally runs well when entered in the right spot and this one could be ideal. 7-IRISH MAJOR tuned up with a sprint last week but he’s been better going long. Stretches out today. Should be far more competitive. 3-CAMPAIGN SPY reeled off three straight victories at Fanduel. He’s still eligible for this condition because his wins were in the $4000 or less category. He’s probably going to try to wire the field. Could succeed.
Race 3
This race appears to be wide open but going to go with 6-HOT DAME. She hasn’t raced in nearly two months and has had only one slow drill during that time but she ran well here versus better in the sprint and her main competition, Good Mongolia, is far better on the lawn. 5-GOOD MONGOLIA is another with a dearth of recent drills following six months off but she has also faced better recently. However, she prefers turf and though that could change with the drop to this level, you really can’t count on it. Speedy 2-ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE will try to steal this on the lead. Her speed will be enhanced with the stretch in distance. Just not sure she can hold off better rivals late.
Race 4
6-OCEAN POINTE only beat one rival in his debut but he was not only making his first start and he was taking on winners. This time he’ll be racing with first Lasix, meeting maidens, and racing with experience. Expecting far better. 8-SIVAKO has shown marginal improvement through three starts but could improve dramatically today. He’s another getting Lasix for the first time and he’ll be meeting arguably his easiest field yet. 1-LINE TO GAIN is likely to be ignored in the wagering but he ran a terrific race in his only start, finishing second, less than a length back. His numbers don’t seem to match with some in here but he’s another getting Lasix and we do know he has some ability.
Race 5
5-GHALY POSSE will be tough. Her main competition scratched from this race and will instead go tomorrow. This filly was heavily favored in her debut but had to settle for third after fighting for the lead most of the way. She had a couple good works since. Should be ready for these. 8-GHAALEB’S HONOR, from same connections as top choice, also ran well in her debut but was also defeated as the heavy favorite. She didn’t display the same kind of speed as her stablemate but that doesn’t mean she won’t today. 9-PRETTY IN PRADO has been training well for her debut. Her gate drills seem to suggest that she’ll display good early speed. She might be bred to be better on turf but she is really bred to handle anything.
Race 6
7-DIVE DEEP hasn’t won in his seven starts this year but he did finish second in four of them. He’s been barely beaten in last few. Takes on his easiest field in a long time. Can make amends at a square price. 4-GRAND HIDEAWAY won his last two and was able to run down top choice two races back. Gets an apprentice rider and her five-pound weight allowance for this start. That could make the difference. Lightly-raced 8-ADIOS ASHER has had only two turf races but he wired his last at this distance, beating allowance company. Doubt that he’ll stay in this race but he could be tough to catch if he does.
Race 7
1-UNCASHED simply dominated the field and paid over $30 in his Louisiana Downs debut. Obviously don’t know the quality of those he faced but they must have been more highly regarded than he. Team of Rivelli and Loveberry always tough. Hard to get excited about probable short price in a field full of relative unknowns but he does look like the one to beat. 2-MAGNA MASSA is another with a dominant victory in his debut, this time at Fanduel. Again you really don’t know about his rivals in that race but at least one came back to win their next start. Gets first Lasix. He won his race as the even-money favorite under a hand ride. Might be the real deal. 9-SUMMER ALL YEAR ran well in his first start starts at Canterbury but wasn’t a match for stakes rivals in last. Not sure this will be a considerably easier field but he does deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Race 8
Don’t like that 6-CHRISTIAN C has only one published drill since his last race in May but Reavis does have them ready off layoffs and this could be the easiest field this gelding has met in years. 9-BULLDOG OF BERGEN has been in good form in Ohio but he’s had 30 starts on this track without a single win. Can he break that streak today? 8-PERFECT WAGER is usually competitive when meeting straight claimers and he’s dropping into that kind of field today. Putting blinkers back on could be a big help.
**************************************
EMILY GULLIKSON – Click here for OptixEQ Plots
RACE 1: #5 SIR ACEALOT seems well-meant as he makes his second start of this form cycle returning to Hawthorne. He was competitive at today’s N3 claiming level prior to the June 24th claim and should be competitive right back at this level.
#1 JUST RIGHT MIKE might not be the “best” horse in the race though could hold a pace advantage (Quad I Square) in today’s event. He has raced as a Quad I Square twice this year; his place finish over the off-track on May 24th and the June 20th win at Canterbury Park.
RACE 2: #7 IRISH MAJOR could be sitting on a peak effort wheeling right back to make his second start of the meet. A similar quick turnaround was used by Perez back in April with Irish Major moving forward to finish second with a strong 81 OptixFIG on April 9th.
#4 NOT VERY GENTLE should find the welcome class relief to compete exiting higher Optional Claiming events at HS Indy in this series of his form cycle. The class drop should also move up #1 JUST GUN IT today noting he was running against a much higher class here at Hawthorne back in the sprint meet.
#3 CAMPAIGN SPY might find wagering attention coming off the pair of wins, however, could be vulnerable today stepping up in class and coming off a taxing (HARD OptixNOTES) race just 20-days ago.
RACE 3: Tough to get too creative in this small field with #5 GOOD MONGOLIA and #6 HOT DAME as standouts on class. The class edge will be required as the main track is not the preferred surface for Good Mongolia and Hot Dame has shown some distance limitations around two turns.
RACE 4: #6 OCEAN POINT debuted against allowance company for the $250k purse on September 8th at Kentucky Downs and all around finds considerable class relief landing here with maidens. He broke very slow on debut, compromising his chances from the start. He appears to have come out of the race well working on September 21st and will pick up first Lasix today as well. #8 SIVAKO also exits the Kentucky Downs meet and overall has not shown much progress in his three races to date.
Lothenbach will be represented by a pair of second time starters: #4 MINNESOTA MOON holding turf experience coming into the race; where the shift to the turf should move up #7 RED CENTS based on his physicality as a horse that should handle turf and today’s two turn distance. The change in surface and experience should also move up #9 SHARP AZ NAILS as he took kickback on debut and presented as a turf-style runner.
RACE 5: A class edge could sit with #5 GHALY POSSE over rival #3 KISS N BIZ the two second time starters that showed early speed on debut. Kiss N Biz was scheduled to debut at Hawthorne back in June and was scratched twice with both events at the maiden claiming level and is cross entered in a $10k maiden claiming race here on Saturday. Ghaly Posse showed speed after a slow start and should benefit from the experience first out.
Becker will also send out, #8 GHAALEB’S HONOR as one that should also benefit from the debut and from any early pace to target with her RunStyle. A subtle excuse can be made for #1 BEG BORROW N STEAL in each of her starts. She was compromised by the rider tactics on debut and then showed early speed against the race flow in her second start. She will shift to the main track today and also a class change to run on this circuit at the statebred level. Michele Boyce has started out live during opening week and could see that continue at the start of week two with #9 PRETTY IN PRADO making her first start for this capable outfit.
RACE 6: Rivelli has a strong hand in this race with #7 DEEP DIVE and #8 ADIOS ASHER as both fit today’s conditions on speed and class as well as current form coming into this event. Those two hold recency over #11 FOLLOW THE SIGNS as he returns today off the 230-day layoff and trip out west to run at Santa Anita earlier this year. He will return to Hawthorne for Vanden Berg and under conditions where he has been competitive in the past. The Vanden Berg barn was cold by their standards during the first week and that trend could suggest Follow the Signs will require this start.
#12 WINGING WAYS is given a mention as a longshot runner with hidden turf form coming into this race. Some positive intent could be in play as Meraz will wheel right back from the allowance race where he was protected running here last week, the opening day, September 23rd.
RACE 7: The effort from #1 UNCASHED on debut was massive and not surprising to see him privately purchased out of that race. He will be tested in this second start and wheeling back in just 17-days, if looking for any knocks. Visually he was dominant and carried himself well to suggest he can hold his form here. He is tough to ignore off that effort from the visuals to the speed figure and anything close to a repeat in this race has him the clear-cut horse to beat. #3 ELI’S PROMISE might have bled in the stakes race at Ellis Park back on August 14th. He will race on Lasix today shifting over to this circuit, which could assist him physically, though overall must improve and does show some gaps in his works since the most recent start.
RACE 8: The class drop returning from a layoff is a negative sign on #6 CHRISTIAN C today. He is assigned as the morning line favorite and in that role that creates an opportunity opening up the race to value alternatives. Constantino Roman had been a regular rider on Christian C for Reavis and his presence (or lack thereof) is noted on #2 ALLEN. Trainer Tim Padilla seemed to be giving Allen the start on September 14th returning from the 90-day layoff. He was passively ridden, not asked for his best and project to improve with that race under his belt showing up on this circuit to make his second start of this form cycle.
#8 PERFECT WAGER also looked to be “given” his race on September 17th as Broberg also sent out the race favorite, Kierkegaard, to finish in a photo for the win. Broberg has sent out live runners to start the meet and has a well-meaning appearance in this race.