Hawthorne Race Course: Saturday, September 24:
2-IDAWIN looks best of a weak bunch. She finished in the money in her last two main-track starts and was claimed from last by a far hotter trainer. Her price will be low but can’t see anyone in here beating her. 1-HOPPESTRY looks like the best of the rest. She’s arguably been facing tougher rivals. Could be a cold, but low-odds, exacta. 4-FLYING BUSINESS has been in poor form at Canterbury but she does seem to wake up when racing at Hawthorne. Seems fast enough to stay close throughout.
3-ARCHIEMYBOY, fresh off a wire-to-wire win downstate, is probably the one to beat. He’ll be meeting slightly tougher here but, with the exception of last, he’s always faced much tougher. He’s unlikely to get an easy lead, and might not get an early lead at all, but he is just as good when coming from off the pace. 2-EASTER MUSIC makes his first start of the year. But, he has been training well and he did win the last time he came off a layoff. Five of his eight wins came on this track. Figures prominently. 4-W W KAN DO had only one slow drill since his last race in July but he does like the front end and he could spoil the chances of top choice if they lock up in a speed duel.
3-LUVIN BULLIES is probably the most accomplished turf sprinter in here. However, she is 10 years old and her best days are behind her. But, she does know what to do. Finished second in her last at Canterbury. Can build on that effort for this. 4-PRINCESS CORA has been good in sprints and good on turf but she has never been in a short turf sprint. This is her chance to shine, especially with probable leading connections in her corner. 6-GO STORMIN GIRL is one of the quicker members in this field and she has a rider that will get her out of the gate and possibly onto the lead quickly.
2-MOVE ON OVER looks like a standout…almost. Have to be a bit concerned about the extremely poor effort at Fanduel in last but he was so sharp going into that race, which turned out to be a “key” race and his barn is generally one of the strongest around. Guessing he’ll bounce back in a big way and earn the victory at low odds. 3-KEEP ATTACKING is in better current form than most of the rest of the field. On the other hand, he’s been good downstate but not necessarily as good at Hawthorne where some of his rivals have had better success. 1-LAYTON THE DAY has good speed and the rail. Like that he has been racing consistently while many of his rivals in here are coming in with only one workout and no races in months. He’s been facing easier but might have a fitness edge over many in here.
5-FUTURE VICTORY should be tough. He was narrowly defeated in last three, racing at Monmouth and Saratoga. Claimed from the powerhouse Todd Pletcher barn, he moved into another sharp outfit. Moves back into allowance company but this group seems far easier than those he’s been facing. 7-RONSTADT is another in good form. While not likely to go for the lead, he is likely to be racing within easy striking distance of the early leaders. Won’t have to weave his way through traffic looking for a hole to get through. That just might give him the advantage. 11-PADDY’S HOUSE has had some huge races but maybe his last, the first time that Esquivel rode him, might be his best. Manny’s back aboard today. If they do manage to draw into the race, they deserve consideration.
4-NAUGHTY ALFRED could be in control from start to finish. He did wire the fields in two of his last three starts. It seems as though he has only one rival to beat to the lead and ET, his rider, has a knack for outbreaking everyone. Says catch me. 5-BRAVO BRAVO will be waiting in the wings, waiting for the speed to tire. If Naughty Alfred gets an easy early lead it could be game over but if Time Heist does make an early race of it, Bravo Bravo could fly by late. 6-TIME HEIST, the other with good speed, won two in a row at Canterbury before taking on better in last. But, he is dropping back into a straight claimer. If he does manage to outbreak top choice, there is a chance that he’ll take it all the way.
Going to give 7-PURR SEA the chance to upset. She’s making her turf debut but this Illinois Champion 2-year-old filly is certainly bred to handle the surface. Her barn specializes in turf runners so would imagine they know her potential. She is blessed with pushbutton speed and appears capable of running well on or off the pace. 5-FATE FACTOR is a multiple stakes-placed runner. Although she won only two of her 21 grass races, she has always been in against some pretty tough company. This race could be a confidence builder for her. We’ll see if she rises to the occasion. 3-RUSSIAN MAFIA can’t be overlooked. She has been victorious in eight of her 32 turf races, including the upset victory in the Romacaca Stakes here back in June. She has generally thrived at Hawthorne. We’ll see if she wakes up.
Not sure I’m in love with 5-ROOKERY but she has been running in six-figure allowance races all year and this field appears to be far easier than those. I have to ignore recent form a bit and think she’ll be far more effective in this spot…but I could be wrong. 2-MAUREENLOVESFRANK is the one they have to beat. She’s in better form than the rest, with three wins from her last five starts. Claimed from last by perennial leading Illinois trainer Larry Rivelli, she seems poised to continue her recent success. 1-HONEY MUG was sharp here in the spring and late last fall. Her lone start since May and her lone recent workout leave a lot to be desired but her affinity for this track has to be appreciated.
RACE 1: #2 INDAWIN projects to hold a pace advantage (Quad I above ParLine) in this compact field. She was compromised with the outside post on September 15th forced to use for position from the outside and stayed on well in a blanket for minors all things considered with the winner tracking from mid-pack. The quick turnaround once again for this race could be a test, though given the pace edge and OptixFIG in OFR could still be tough in this race. She figures to be a very short price with those obvious factors. #3 HOOSIER GOLD CASE should offer value and a move forward compromised by the kickback on August 13th at FanDuel as she returns to Hawthorne in the third race of the form cycle.
RACE 2: Willing to take a stand against #3 ARCHIEMYBOY coming off the August 23rd win at FanDuel Park given the visuals that override the running line, finishing position and chart comment. A win here would not be a surprise though is expected to be a very short price on a horse that looks very obvious and looks can be deceiving.
#6 GOLDENPENCE could be a bit of a stab looking at this current form and especially with the August 12th race sitting on top of the past performance. That day he was taken back and not asked for run, allowed to gallop under a hold throughout. Goldenpence spent the early part of the spring Hawthorne season running at a higher starter allowance condition before dropping to this restricted $5k claiming condition on June 4th. The route distance could have played against him as well as setting a fast early pace as there was some intent noting he was bet down to 5-2 from the 6-1 morning line. The rider Marvin Mena Rodriguez is an unfamiliar name and with preliminary research had been riding in Peru.
#2 EASTER MUSIC will give up recency coming off the 272-day layoff, though does hold a win at this condition from back in his previous seasons here at Hawthorne. He fits this condition making his first start of the year as he does hold two wins from 2021. #5 GONZO could find a favorable pace scenario as a Large Quad I/IV Square, an advantage he would require with OptixFIG on the lower end of today’s OFR.
RACE 3: #7 APRIL’S GEM fits today’s condition with OptixFIG in OFR a favorable Run Style (Quad I Square) and current form. She will return to Hawthorne and today’s 10k claiming level where she has shown the ability to compete and will find subtle class relief from the July and August races at HS Indy. #3 KANFU also could get the right trip and with versatility as shown by her Plot position. In addition, she could have some hidden intent to return to sprinting, noting a scratch from an allowance here at Hawthorne back on July 17th and returning to a sprint after losing ground in her June and August races at HS Indy.
RACE 4: #2 MOVE ON OVER will return fresh for this race. He peaked in his form cycle following the Hawthorne win back on June 24th. His OptixFIG and Plot position/shape fit today’ race shape. Emigh the win rider and aboard for the place finish on May 27th returns to the saddle suggesting further positive intent.
RACE 5: #4 CLARESTOWN could be given an excuse with the trip back on September 7th which cost him a better chance to compete and all around capable of improvement with form and class on par for today’s allowance. His position on the Plot is similar to rival #6 GATE CREW one that returning from the 162-day layoff gives up recency to others in this field.
#9 ASCENDING MOON could get overlooked in this spot and presents upside off his form this season and one that is lightly raced over the turf, a surface that could be his ideal. His Plot position is similar to the sophomore #7 RONSTADT one that could receive the attention of the pair given the connections and coming off the in-the-money finishes. The shorter turnaround time wheeling back in three weeks should also be taken into account when assessing value.
#5 FUTURE VICTORY will land here after they were unable to draw into a higher level allowance event on September 8th at Kentucky Downs and with the September 14th allowance taken off the HS Indy turf. Future Victory fits as a logical type in this race though no real strong edge over some others in this field to keep in mind when assessing post time odds.
RACE 6: #4 NAUGHTY ALFRED projects to be the “speed of the speed” as the lone Quad I Square. The “Fire” Contention and honest 34 SpeedRate should be taken into account as that scenario could set up for a stalk-and-pounce runner. #5 BRAVO BRAVO could look to turn the tables on Naughty Alfred, the two returning from the four horse field common race on September 3rd at FanDuel.
#2 LITTLE KANSAS was given an excuse on August 22nd at HS Indy breaking slow and taking a lot of contact at the start. He has a history of breaking slow, noting the behavior last month was not a one-off event. #1 DEVIL’S RULE could also find a share in this race scenario though overall is on the lighter side in terms of speed and class required for a top contender, though can pop with a big race from time-to-time.
RACE 7: #2 CAT ATTACK looked to be using the August 15th turf sprint at HS Indy as a prep for this upcoming Hawthorne meet. Cat Attack will be tested here back against open company, though does project intent and a positive rider change with Roman returning today. Both #5 FATE FACTOR and #3 RUSSIAN MAFIA fit as logical types with class exiting the Romacaca Stakes back in June.
RACE 8: #5 ROOKERY is upgraded shipping into this circuit exiting higher par/purse allowance events this season. She has been given a slight 48-day freshening since the Saratoga meet and has a steady series of works at Churchill Downs to keep up conditioning for this race. The race timing might not be as ideal for #2 MAUREENLOVESFRANK wheeling back in 19-days when the rider made her work harder than necessary to get the win at Colonial Downs.
#7 MYSTIC TWIST could also be upgraded here with the change in post position shifting off the rail where she should be more comfortable running outside horses. She fits this race par on OptixFIG and class exiting the similar OFR races at Presque Isle Downs.
Post Time: 5:00 pm
1st 7 Silencing 1 Yellow Creek Road 2 Only Show In Town
2nd 7 Dark Timber 6 Constitutional Law 5 Master Of Arms
3rd 6 Mobot 12 Swiss Guard 7 Lord Grantham
4th 7 Cadeau De Paix 3 Catchusifyoucan 5 Aidanike
5th 4 Tommy Gun 8 Papa Rocket 2 Strings
6th 2 Premium 3 Solar Power 4 Shake Up
7th 3 Falconet 5 Cocktail Moments 1 Turnerloose
8th 4 Conagher 7 Gunite 6 Strava
9th 1 Echo Zulu 3 Colorful Mischief 7 Wicked Halo
10th 2 Home Brew 3 Saint Tapit 8 Creative Minister
11th 9 Birdie Rose 12 Pioneer Parade 5 Cosmic Rewind
Post Time: 6:00 pm
1st P 5 Goldies Greatness 2 Stormalong 1 Nazare
2nd T 8 Fashion Frenzie 7 Patriarch Hanover 6 Hp Royal Theo
3rd P 9 Ron 7 Cold Creek Queso 6 St Lads Sterling
4th P 9 Voelz Delight 7 Western Wish 6 Dabarndawgswatchin
5th P 6 Pipewrench Charlie 3 Going Fast 8 Grand Poobah
6th P 5 Sylvia Hanover 4 Charleston 3 Bellisma Hanover
7th T 4 Raised By Lindy 1 Mon Cheval 11 Warrawee Xenia
8th P 8 Tickertape Hanover 2 Stockade Seelster 4 Save America
9th T 2 B A Superhero 3 Keg Stand 7 Branded By Lindy
10th T 1 Oh Well 10 Crantini 6 Winners Bet
11th P 2 Commanding Officer 4 B Stoney 6 Control Heaven
12th P 5 American History 6 Poseidon Seelster 7 Codehame Cigar Box
13th P 2 Legion Seelster 6 Woodmere Stealdeal 7 Flyingevebettor