5-SNOOTY isn’t a strong choice but she does appear to have an early speed edge and, although she’s been tiring lately, she might be able to build a commanding lead and never look back. 2-SWEET CONFUSION is the most logical choice. After all, she finished second in her last two starts while meeting better rivals. So, you have to wonder why the drop down the claiming ladder. 1-SENORITA AURORA finished a head behind Sweet Confusion in last and also drops but the drop for her is more realistic. She finished in the money in six of seven this year, a streak that could easily continue.
4-DOLLY’S LINE drops once more. She finished second here, in a state-bred maiden special, in her only local appearance. She’s been fading late in races since breaking her maiden but she could last far longer with the drop to this level. 5-RUNNER’S HEAT, just in from Canterbury makes her local debut while making her first start against winners. Her barn always sports a high win percentage around here. Would be no surprise in this one. 2-CAIRO SUMMER, fresh off the claim, turns back in distance. She finished second, as a maiden, in her only Hawthorne start, back in May. Would expect her to show some late run at this distance.
10-EL SOCIO, like many in here, never won on turf but he has been meeting tougher rivals all along. Plus, he did finish in the money in six of his 11 grass races. Decent speed will have him close from the start and he could just edge by late. 8-SON OF GRACE has shown the most consistent speed. The turf course figures to be extra firm which could help his chances. He’s in from the tough Colonial meet. Might never look back. An abundance of pace in this race could help set things up for a closer and 2-BIG BLUE could fit that description better than most.
6-TWIRLING ROSES was overmatched on turf at Kentucky Downs in last but was racing competitively in his previous turf races at Ellis. However, he’s been far better on the main track and been a major force in these sprint starter allowance races. This certainly isn’t an easy spot but still think he’s the one to beat. 1-KREWE CHIEF ran OK in Indiana but he could kick it into another gear in his Hawthorne return. He won his last four Hawthorne starts, including a “key” race romp in June. Wouldn’t overlook. 3-JACK’S ADVANTAGE won an allowance/optional claimer in his last start in Minnesota. His speed figures suggest he will be a major factor in this race.
Going to give 5-HANNITY a slight edge. He’s been in pretty good form. He won his last start versus arguably better and he was racing well against this type here this spring. 1-CAMMACK, at 12, might be facing his easiest field ever. His works have been slow but steady since his last start in June but this old guy still remembers what it takes to win. 2-RIVER FINN tired in last couple but he’s another that has a good record on this turf course. Expect him to display good early speed. He could be in it throughout.
3-SAQEEL has been racing competitively since getting claimed by this barn. This group appears to be a bit softer than those he’s been facing recently. He’s capable of running well on or off the pace. Slim pick. 1-COWBOY’S DREAM takes on better and does it coming off a layoff but he’s been working consistently during his layoff and he has shown an affinity for this racetrack. He won his last two starts in June. Could pick up where he left off. 6-CONI’S COUP likes the front end. There is likely to be a bit of a pace duel up front but he could emerge with the early lead. Could still have it when they cross the wire.
3-STACK SHACK turns back in distance after two good route races at Colonial but she might still be the quickest member of this field. She has been an effective turf sprinter in the past. Gets a sharp rider in the irons. Might never be headed. 5-ABITIBI is lightly raced and never ran on turf but she is starting for the probable leading barn and gets the rider that has won many recent championships in Illinois. Gets the benefit of the doubt. 4-CHROME ATTACK finishes fast. Although she has shown early zip at times, she just seems better when flying late. Could get into the mix in the final furlong.
6-RACETHROUGHTHECITY raced gamely in her career debut at Ellis. She fought for the lead through blistering fractions and only gave it up late. That race was on turf and she’ll be on the main track today but she’ll be getting first Lasix and she should have benefitted from her hard-fought loss. 3-BOOGIE DOWN BRONX makes her career debut. She’s been training well toward her first start. Her barn sports a high win percentage with their first-time starters. It’s notable that Loveberry apparently chose to ride this one after he had ridden the other Rivelli starter (Wilma Mankiller) in that runner’s first two starts. When Brad Cox ships a horse in, it’s a good idea to pay attention. 1-CERCHI makes her debut for that barn. She’s been training forwardly for her debut.
RACE 1: As shown on OptixPLOT, #5 SNOOTY could hold a pace advantage as the lone Quad I runner. The Large Circle represents a lack of finish, something to consider in terms of value. #1 SENORITA AURORA, #2 SWEET CONFUSION and #4 SAMARITA share a similar Plot position and shape (Square). The EP RunStyle (OptixRPM/RunStyleMatch) designation could present an upgrade for #4 SAMARITA of the group when factoring the “Snowflake” contention of today’s race dynamic. She could also present upside and a hidden class edge returning to Hawthorne from her races last year as a juvenile running at the higher allowance condition. She also fits this condition as the only runner in this field that has three career wins though her win on June 21st at FanDuel Park does not count for eligibility.
RACE 2: The “Red” PlotFit suggests a chaotic race shape to try and handicap pace. Morning line favorite, #4 DOLLY’S LINE will find class relief to run in this race and that could be the edge over her rivals as many will be stepping up in class. The OptixFIGRANGE/OFR for today’s race is lower than the August 31st race at Horseshoe Indianapolis (77-69) and two horses from that event last month returned with improving OptixFIG in a common race on September 19th.
RACE 3: #10 EL SOCIO will land here for Amoss noting the connections scratched from a September 14th N2 claiming race due the races coming off the turf at HS Indy. His class, speed figures, and form stack up on par for this race. His trip from the outside and potential pace scenario would be further upgraded by #11 FORWARD CURVE (Quad I Square), unable to draw in off the also-eligible list. The “Sun” Contention and higher than average 50 SpeedRate dynamic could assist #2 BIG BLUE and #9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN as Quad II/IV Squares as their advantage for this race lacking any OptixFIG, form or class edge. #5 MYSTIFIER could also benefit from the race shape according to the Plot and is the type of horse that needs the ideal trip to compete. ****#6 UNCLE NICK is given a mention as a double-digit entry, lightly raced four-year-old that has yet to return to the turf since his debut. That said, he has concerns as an individual with the long layoff that followed his debut and the NO_LINE OptixNOTES in his two recent Ellis Park races.
RACE 4: The two Eduardo Rodriguez runners, #5 AWESOME FAMILY and #6 TWIRLING ROSES should benefit from today’s race shape and “Green” PlotFit. #5 AWESOME FAMILY could be the “speed of the speed” positioned furthest left (first call) on the Plot. If he is allowed to clear (#2 WINGING WAYS does not press) his Standard (current form) Quad I Square could be enough to hold. #6 TWIRLING ROSES should be stalking right off that pair looking to take the first run.
#4 SOUPER HIGHVOLTAGE was a Quad I runner when showing up at this starter allowance condition here on May 15th and found a Plot change this afternoon. #3 JACK’S ADVANTAGE could have a pace advantage according to the Plot, though could also be peaked in his current form cycle pairing top efforts and with a slight setup win on September 7th. #1 KREWE CHIEF will find a class rise from his win streak races earlier this year at Hawthorne; he projects to be running late as a Square in Quad IV.
RACE 5: The “Red” PlotFit is respected here with today’s race shape though the higher 90 SpeedRate could play a role in the outcome and upgrading Squares, horses that have finishing ability. The majority of the field sits above the ParLine, suggesting an honest pace that should assist the lone Standard and Surface/Distance Quad IV Square runner, #3 MALIGATOR.
#6 HONEST TO GOODNESS is tough to make a case for looking at the Plot alone, however one could find some form and upside for this race. He has some hidden form and should find a different race dynamic than his prior races this season where he was compromised with his RunStyle chasing slower early paces and those races impact his Plot position and shape. Going back to June 4th Honest to Goodness showed run against the flow behind the lone winner finishing in a blanket for the deeper minors alongside some of today’s rivals at today’s $10k claiming condition.
RACE 6: #6 CONI’S COUP was not asked for his best back on August 28th and could improve returning to this circuit and class relief from those $70k purse allowance races at Colonial Downs. The Plot position as a Quad I Square is tough to dismiss even as he shares a EP (and E) RunStyle with three others in this field. #3 SAQEEL could benefit from any early contention and 34 SpeedRate. Saqeel projects to take a step forward in his second start of the form cycle and finding subtle class relief from the HS Indy race with the higher OFR on September 7th.
RACE 7: This is a tougher race to get creative as #1 PLUS CHIC, #3 STACK SHACK and #5 ABITIBI fit as logical types and even tougher to separate this group early without live odds. Abitibi presents the most upside of the group being lightly raced and freshened for this meet and placement. She ran a big race breaking her maiden on debut to win against the race flow and with ground loss. Some regression could have set in from that race into her second career start and then had the layoff that followed.
RACE 8: #6 RACETHROUGHTHECITY stayed on after taking pace pressure through a faster early pace though unable to hold off the perfect trip, 3-5 chalk winner, Twice as Sweet and just nipped for place. While she did debut over the turf, she should be able to hold her form in this spot on the conventional dirt. Longer-shop second time starter, #10 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY took contact at the start and from off-the-pace soon after was not asked to run in her August 30th debut. She started to run late and could present upside as well as getting overlooked on the run line and finishing position.
#3 BOOGIE DOWN BRONX was entered to debut back on September 5th in a NY-bred Special Weight race at Saratoga entered as a Main-Track-Only runner unable to compete with the races staying on the turf. Stablemate #7 WILMA MANKILLER has the pair of races on the main track and could benefit from the experience though might ultimately prefer turf given her visuals.
#4 MYSTIC STORM will be the first juvenile starter this season for Hugh H. Robertson. This is not uncommon for this barn as they often do not start debuting juveniles typically until late in the season. The record with first time starting juvenile runners is not as strong as they are with the older runners, though capable all the same.
#1 CERCHI will debut for Brad Cox and a belated debut after being picked up at the April OBS Sale working 10.3 and overall average visuals.